The party may soon be over! India heading for single party rule

The year 2024 is not far away and with the Opposition remaining relegated to their respective regions, the BJP is strongly emerging as the only party that can rule at the Centre and hence pushing the 'Double Engine' doctrine

Narendra Modi and BJP are known for political manoeuvring. Last week's elections to the Rajya Sabha have proved that the BJP can swing in numbers at the last minute as it managed surprises in Maharashtra and Haryana. While there was a case of cross voting by Congress MLA Kuldeep Bishnoi in Haryana, the shockers in Maharashtra came from Independents voting for BJP's Dhananjay Mahadik.

Shocking because the Independents were in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) flock when Uddhav Thackeray had won the trust vote with 171 votes in November 2019. Now, the MVA needed 168 votes to win the RS seat for its Sanjay Pawar, but managed only161. That the Independent lot was disgruntled is not a secret. Former CM Devendra Fadnavis cleverly used the crisis in the BJP's favour. With this, he has now begun his journey to settle the score with the MVA and Thackeray and come out of his Winter of Discontent-2019 when his master plan to hijack NCP leader Ajit Pawar into supporting BJP to form a government was short lived.

NCP supremo Sharad Pawar got his nephew Ajit back home and thus Thackeray formed the MVA government with Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress as partners, along with the support of nine Independents. A sulking Fadnavis has been saying that the MVA government will fall under its own weight of internal crisis. Well, for him the RS poll was the stepping stone. He has started winning the top brass hearts when BJP won the Goa Assembly poll for which the former Maharashtra CM was the party in-charge.

I narrated at length the Maharashtra scene since it could prove to be the beginning of the BJP's strategy for the upcoming Presidential poll. The Opposition led by Sonia Gandhi might have thought that they managed a masterstroke by pushing Sharad Pawar as a united opposition candidate. One, Sonia herself could be trying to repair the fractured ties with Pawar. It is well known that Pawar quit the Congress to form the NCP (Nationalist Congress Party) after Sonia staked her claim for the Prime Minister's post instead of suggesting his name. The second point to consider is that Narendra Modi had praised Pawar as his 'political guru'. Perhaps, she thought that with her masterstroke, even Modi could agree for Pawar as a consensus candidate for the President of India. It is no secret that Pawar has enough supporters within the BJP, including Nitin Gadkari. But Gadkari and Fadnavis do not exactly go along very well. Fadnavis' view, if it comes to BJP assessing support for Pawar, will obviously counter weigh that of Gadkari. Remember, Gadkari was side lined in NDA 2.0 after some reports that he could be the BJP's PM candidate, had Modi failed to get adequate numbers in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll.

The united opposition can always gun for Pawar as their candidate, but they cannot expect to manage consensus with the BJP and of course Modi who has vowed to ensure a Congress-muktBharat. He can't be seen, at least within the BJP, as the one who is supporting Sonia Gandhi's candidate.

Now let us examine the options for the BJP. In view of the strong backlash post-Nupur Sharma controversy, the ruling party could be looking for a Muslim candidate. In fact, this was the first question that came to my mind when Union minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi's candidature for the Rajya Sabha election was not considered. He ought to be a member of either Houses of Parliament to continue as a Minister. Who knows, Modi could be having another plan for Naqvi since party needs to have maintain its Muslim support. The other candidate that comes to one's mind is Kerala governor Arif Mohammed Khan. Unfortunately, caste and religious issues come to play even in the election for the nation's first citizen. That is the price that we have to pay for democracy in India.

As I have said in my previous columns, BJP treats every election as an important one to win – from Panchayat to Parliament and now the President of India. It will go all out to cross the half-way mark of votes required for the occupant of the Rashtrapati Bhavan. In the 75th Year of Independence, when Modi will unfurl the national tricolour from the ramparts of the Red Fort, it will be a moment of pride for him to have BJP's own man as the country's President. MoSha (Modi and Amit Shah combine) are bound to win over Nitish Kumar and Navneet Patnayak to muster Bihar and Odisha votes. Andhra's Jagan will not support Congress candidates, that's for sure.

Maharashtra and some other States will have local body elections soon. Fadnavis has now his eyes set on these. Mumbai, Navi Mumbai Thane and Nagpur municipal corporation elections are the key ones. The BJP strategist has already started rolling out his game plan by getting the influential Ganesh Naik and his family, along with 50 sitting corporators of Navi Mumbai Municipal Corporation, into the BJP fold from the NCP. It is a different matter that Naik's opponents keep pointing out that he had once vehemently opposed Modi. There are many staunch opponents of Modi who got into the BJP now. Everything is fair in love, war and politics.

The year 2024 is not far away and with the Opposition remaining relegated to their respective regions, the BJP is strongly emerging as the only party that can rule at the Centre and hence pushing the 'Double Engine' doctrine. It has already started its campaign for the Gujarat and HP legislative assembly elections and sounded the bugle for the next Lok Sabha poll from Uttar Pradesh.

Mark my words and the speeches of all BJP leaders at all occasions – political and official - who always deride the previous government performances. The Congress is unable to put up a credible resistance and the rest of the Opposition does not support the grand old party in this context. Remember, each of these parties are opposing the Congress in their States. So, the marriage of convenience for the presidential poll will not last long. The party is over; India is heading for a single party rule at the Centre. We all know it is not good for democracy. But do the combined non-BJP lot realise it? Let them answer.

(The author is a Mumbai-based media veteran known for his thought-provoking messaging)