Who will win the Telangana Assembly elections is the billion dollar question

A key factor that can take a big toll on BRS is the intense discontentment against sitting MLAs. But BRS has a large majority of over 100 MLAs out of 119 in the current Assembly. Even if it loses 40 per cent of seats from its current strength in this election, it will still be able to form the government. This is a big challenge for Congress

Elections to the Telangana Assembly are just three days away. All parties stepped up their efforts to win the support of voters in their favour. National parties like Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (INC) deployed their top guns to spice up the campaign and make last-ditch efforts. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP’s winning mascot, started his three-day election tour of Telangana on Saturday, while Congress deployed Gandhi family scion Rahul Gandhi. His sister Priyanka Gandhi and Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge also descended on Telangana. BJP, which once occupied second slot in Telangana’s political discourse, seems to have lost that steam. But it seems to have adopted a two-pronged strategy. Firstly, the saffron party is aiming to win a few seats on its own. Secondly, it wants to prevent Congress from wresting power in the State. A Congress victory in Telangana will further bolster the confidence of the Congress cadre across the country. Obviously, the BJP doesn’t want this to happen just before the 2024 General Elections.

The ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) led by the mercurial Kalvakuntla Chandrashekar Rao (KCR), the current Chief Minister of Telangana, is leaving no stone unturned to notch up a third consecutive victory, a record south of Vindhyas as no party has won three times in a row in south India. With BJP itself getting relegated to the third place through its self-goals, the fight for political power in Telangana this time is clearly between BRS and the Congress. Telangana is one of the very few States where the primary contest is between a national party and a regional party. That way, the electoral battle in Telangana is unique in some sense.

Frankly speaking, both BRS and Congress have their strengths and weaknesses. Let’s examine them.

The five key strengths of the ruling party are welfare schemes and developmental projects, well-established poll management machinery and resources, KCR’s leadership and oratorical skills, brute majority in the current Assembly and the advantage of having the official machinery at its disposal. The five key factors that are going against the BRS are anti-incumbency against its MLAs, widespread allegations of corruption against the KCR family, third consecutive term and unemployment issue.

Meanwhile, the five key factors that are going against the main challenger, Congress, are lack of poll management skills, weak candidates and weaker party network in and around Hyderabad, self-goal on 24-hour free power to farmers, no official chief ministerial candidate and finally, split of anti-ruling party votes between Congress and the BJP in several constituencies. The five key strengths of the main opposition party are positive vibes in its favour after the party’s stupendous victory in Karnataka that have helped it emerge as best alternative to the ruling dispensation in Telangana, TPCC President A. Revanth Reddy’s leadership skills, a manifesto that can outsmart that of BRS, abrupt change of leadership in Telangana BJP and political leaders flocking to it in recent months.

Given the kind of high-value welfare schemes such Rythu Bandhu, farm loan waiver and old-age pension, a large chunk of voters has a monetary stake in the elections. They will lose a lot if the new government messes up with any of these existing schemes. So, KCR, through his oratorical skills and speeches at election meetings, is trying to impress upon voters about this by consistently questioning the ability and credibility of Congress to implement its promises. However, two welfare schemes - free two-bedroom house and Dalit Bandhu - turned counterproductive for the ruling party as only few people have benefitted from them, fuelling enormous discontent among non-beneficiaries.

Another key factor that can take a big toll on BRS is the intense discontentment against sitting MLAs. But, BRS has a large majority of over 100 MLAs out of 119 in the current Assembly. Even if it loses 40 per cent of seats from its current strength in this election, it will still be able to form the government. This is a big challenge for Congress as it must see to it that more than 50 per cent of BRS MLAs are defeated in the November 30 polls.

That’s not an easy task as the grand old party, which has just five MLAs now, after defection lacks an effective poll management network. After the 2018 Assembly polls and subsequent local body polls, a significant chunk of its cadre shifted loyalties to BRS across Telangana. This is amply reflected in Assembly by-polls and GHMC elections in which it put up a poor show in the last four years. Are all these defectors back into Congress fold now?

Interestingly, a majority of opinion makers, intellectuals and unemployed youth eyeing government jobs are against the BRS government. That is the prime reason for the ongoing buzz that Congress will win hands down. Congress should take this buzz out and make a realistic assessment.

Anyway, political parties are waging a no-holds-barred electoral battle in the country’s newest State. But who will have the last laugh – BRS or Congress? This is the billion-dollar question as this election to Telangana Assembly, with money flowing like water, will turn out to be the costliest one in India. More than a billion dollars will be spent on these elections. Nothing less!

However, the political party, which effectively corrects the challenges against it and takes genuine steps to enhance its strengths, will win the polls. As it’s a keen contest between the two main rivals, poll management in the last two days holds the key to power in Telangana.