TDP-led alliance will win in AP hands down: Peoples Pulse

Hyderabad: The TDP-led alliance with the Janasena and BJP is all set to sweep Assembly and Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh, according to a post-poll survey conducted by Peoples Pulse.

TDP president and former Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu is set to become the Chief Minister for the fourth time with the three-party alliance, leaving the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) by the wayside, it added.

Post Poll survey conducted by Peoples Pulse, research organisation, from May 16-20, 2024, revealed that the TDP would get 95-110 seats on its own in the 175-member Assembly. YSRCP, aiming to retain power, would be at 45-60 seats. The TDP’s allies Janasena will get 14-20 and the BJP 2-5 seats. “Their success lies in that they quickly enabled chemistry among their respective supporters leading to a meticulous transfer of vote,” the survey firm said.The Post Poll survey report was compiled by R Dileep Reddy, Director, and G Murali Krishna, Senior Researcher, Peoples Pulse.

Coming to the 25 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh, the TDP would get 13-15 seats, Janasena would win both the seats allotted toit and the BJP will get 2-4 seats (of the 6 seats allotted to them). The YSR Congress will get 3-5 seats.

The vote share of YSRCP may remain between 42-45 percent. TDP-JSP-BJP combine will get a vote share of 50-54 percent, Congress 1-2 percent, others & Nota 3-4 percent. For this survey, the margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent.

This eight percent difference between the challenger and the ruling party sums up the story of the AP election of 2024. While YSRC contested all the 175 seats at stake, the TDP fought in 144 seats, Jana Sena (21) and the BJP (10).

The Post Poll survey revealed that TDP-JSP-BJP alliance is leading over the ruling YSRCP uniformly in all parameters namely, development, community preference, CM choice, party preference, across age and gender. The alliance has an edge over its main rival YSRCP in all regions except Rayalaseema.

When respondents were asked who they preferred as the next Chief Minister, Chandrababu Naidu stood first with 40 percent of the voters preferring him, followed by the present CM YS Jagan Mohan Reddy with 38 percent. JSP president Pawan Kalyan is at distant third with 12 percent.

When asked which party is better for the development of AP, 52 percent said it would be the NDA alliance. YSRCP has been preferred by 41 percent.

“The reason for falling totally out of the voters’ favour is YS Jaganmohan Reddy’s stubborn refusal to look at reality. His firm belief that his absolute steadfast focus on welfare would see him through and this, literally caused the YSR Congress party to turn defunct. His over-dependence on village volunteers, whom he crafted to deliver the welfare schemes right to the doorstep of the beneficiary, became a law unto themselves. This has alienated local YSRCP leadership,” Peoples Pulse said.

Peoples Pulse, a research organisation, conducted a post-poll survey from May 16 to 20 in the 25 Parliament constituencies. In each Parliament constituency, it selected three Assembly segments, chosen on the basis of Probability Proportional Methodology (PPS). Four polling stations were selected from each Assembly segment using the systematic random sampling. In each polling station, 20 -25 randomly selected samples from the Electoral Rolls. A total of 6,900 samples were chosen such that the sample reflects the situation on the ground in terms of caste, religion and age. Gender was given equal representation.