Karnataka derails double engine doctrine, Modi Jadoo Nahi Chala!

As Modi himself has been saying governance matters over anything else, but the saffron party has been trying to push forward politics of religion - Jihad, Azan, Hijab and Bajrang Dal. Religion matters but nothing overpowers hunger and poverty 

While the double engine doctrine might have worked in many legislative Assembly elections, Karnataka demonstrated that much more matters than this Modi Mantra – people who need jobs detest price rise particularly when the income levels are low. Taxpayers do not like their hard-earned money squandered away in corruption. This column has many times discussed the double engine doctrine and pointed out that it is against the principle of cooperative federalism. Forcing people to align with one particular line of political thought does not always work. Remember what Lincoln said: “You can fool some people….” BJP president JP Nadda’s threat that Karnataka would be deprived of Modi’s blessings if they do not vote for the BJP boomeranged.

BJP rose to power on the anti-corruption wave and must now realise that the voters paid it back in the same coin (or digital currency) as the Congress successfully raised the 40 per cent Government slogan. Worse for the Lotus party, the State Contractors Association strengthened the Congress campaign with an open letter that went viral. The allegation was that corruption has reached ‘frightening levels’. The BJP took it apparently lightly. Or just as the Congress in 2014, the BJP did not have a convincing response. Result: history repeated itself and corruption charges turned a full circle.

As Modi himself has been saying governance matters over anything else, but the saffron party has been trying to push forward politics of religion - Jihad, Azan, Hijab and Bajrang Dal. Religion matters but nothing overpowers hunger and poverty. Didn’t Karnataka have a double engine government? What did it promise and what did it achieve? What happened to Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana? After the four-digit price of LPG cylinders, it now promised free gas! And then free milk. Of all the things, they harped on uniform civil code. The voter must have realised that these do not mean much for him or her as their sufferings over the past five years of BJP rule have not reduced. Many had to shift back to old means of cooking with the gas price crossing unaffordable at Rs 1,100.

Now, let us look at the Congress promises: 200 units of free power, 10 kg rice for BPL families, unemployment allowance for graduates and diploma holders, other than the ban on Bajrang Dal and PFI. The party has been successful in building on the success of Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra. In fact, we had said right after the Bharat Jodo that the Congress must build on it and not fritter away the success. Moreover, Rahul Gandhi should continue to demonstrate seriousness about his political leadership. Many have even written off the Grand Old Party (GOP) after the saffron wave even in the Christian dominated North-East, that too in the face of increasing attacks on the minorities. Political pundits said the Congress lost it. Rahul Gandhi himself was away abroad. We ourselves said the Congress Vice President should take his work seriously or give it up, allowing his sister Priyanka to take over.

What happened in Karnataka is nothing short of a miracle for the Congress and disaster for the BJP. The swing of voter mood in favour of the Congress was evident much before the polling date and pollsters could read the writing on the wall. Did BJP fail to read it or acted a bit late in the day? The well-established BJP intelligence via its RSS cadre must have fed the information to the leadership about the voter anger. The ruling party might have also taken inputs from the police machinery. This was evident from the last-ditch efforts by the saffron leaders – from Modi Shah to Nadda – and their reliance on Bajrang. They tried to test the British formula to divide and rule, while blaming the congress for perpetuating the same! The politics of appeasement, as they used it against the Congress, turned against the BJP itself. The people could make out. You can’t fool all of the people all the time (with grateful thanks to Lincoln).

The Karnataka voter has sent out clear signals for the political parties for the 2024 general elections, or for that matter, any election. Along with the promise, performance is important. Double or single engine, what matters is that the train must run and take all passengers along irrespective of the class, caste, creed or religion. Unlike political or financial analysts and TV anchors, the common man does not have to sit with charts, tables and global indicators to know the state of the economy. He can feel the pinch when he does not have a job and when he has to struggle for two square meals a day. And, to put it more brutally, when he is bombarded with religious over-enthusiasm at a time when he is struggling to pay for bare necessities. Like Napoleon said, an army marches its stomach.

As regards promises, every political party announces farm loan waivers as an election stunt. I say stunt because the so-called waiver does not benefit many farmers. An SBI study showed that just 38 per cent of Karnataka farmers benefited from the waiver scheme which means a majority of 62 per cent remained debt-burdened. Prudent financial management implies not mere loan waiver, but effective crop management. Let us discuss this some other time. But for now, suffice to say that the voter always calculates promise Vs performance. The performance has to be consistent and not just towards the election dates. It is fine for the government to promise prosperity at the end of the Amrit Kal. For the voter, what matters is what happens now. Carrots will not work always.

One cannot deny the fact that leadership too matters. BJP has been enjoying the dividends of Narendra Modi's decisive, strong leadership. It has worked well so far in most of the States, including in Karnataka in 2018. Perceptions change along with time, particularly if the performance belies the promise. ‘Na Khaoonga, Na Khane Doonga’ got drowned in the tsunami of 40 per cent corruption.

A massive infrastructure development is in progress across the country, particularly in the saffron-party ruled states, in line with the BJP manifestos’ promises. While these projects will come under a scanner now, non-BJP states are bound to scream against the double engine discrimination. The execution of these projects and the accrual of benefits to the local economies play on the voter’s mind when he goes to press the button on EVM. Similarly, the governance of the non-BJP-ruled states will also be silently X-rayed by the people’s parliament. We are heading for very interesting politics. Also, we will keep an eye on the emergence of an alternative to the BJP. Will the opposition be able to unite, come to a seat sharing agreement and put up a credible fight?

(The columnist is a Mumbai-based independent media veteran, running websites and a YouTube channel known for his thought-provoking messaging)