Unless silenced, climate change denial rhetoric will have devastating repercussions

Scientists assert that the cloud seeding technique cannot create weather or trigger rainfall at the scale observed in countries like Germany and the United States

Climate change denialism persists in the United States with estimates ranging from 12% to 26% of the U.S. population. It is more evident in some states and regions.

There are several reasons for this denialism trend. Political affiliation and ideology, income, education, and exposure to extreme weather events are all important factors. Denialism is more prevalent where local economies are highly dependent on fossil fuels, in rural communities and among populations where mistrust in science is pronounced. Social media reaches millions of users, providing a key mechanism for influencers to spread misinformation. The ability of social media to influence and harden attitudes was apparent in the response to Covid-19 vaccines

Motivated reasoning helps climate change deniers to justify their behaviour. For instance, someone who flies off on holiday several times a year can give themselves the excuse that the plane would still be taking off without them or that just one flight will not make any difference, or -- more to the point -- that nobody has proven the existence of human-made climate change anyway. All these patterns of argument are examples of motivated reasoning.

For those who have followed the tortuous path of Australian climate policy over recent decades, a recent report by the Australian Energy Market Commission of a “shadow price” of A$70 a tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent elicits some painful memories.

The announcement is a reminder of what we lost in 2013 when the Abbott government scrapped the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, better known as the “carbon tax” or the “carbon price”. It was the first time in the world that a carbon price had ever been introduced and subsequently removed.

In 2024, the shadow carbon price described by the commission is not a cost to be paid by carbon emitters. It’s an estimate of the marginal cost of meeting Australia’s emission cut target. The $70/tonne figure will be included when calculating the benefits and costs of rule changes.

Record rainfall brought to some regions by the natural weather cycle El Niño aligns with an expected increase in extreme weather events, experts say.

However, online claims repeatedly suggest that geo-engineering, rather than carbon emissions, is to be blamed. For example, after unprecedented downpours hit Dubai, conservative commentator Robby Starbuck told his 460,000 followers on X in April: “Dubai airport looks like an apocalyptic movie. Videos of the flooding are insane. I’ve seen some blaming climate change when the cause is actually from the use of weather modification. Cloud seeding where chemicals are sprayed in clouds to create rain caused this.”

However, scientists assert that the cloud seeding technique cannot create weather or trigger rainfall at the scale observed in countries like Germany and the United States.

“Due to the strong natural variability of clouds, there is very little scientific proof that cloud seeding has indeed a measurable effect on precipitation,” stated Andrea Flossmann, co-chair of an expert team on weather modification at the World Meteorological Organization.

With less than three weeks until the General Elections, the UK’s political parties are divided over the nation’s climate policies. Reform UK, which is attracting significant support according to some opinion polls, has adopted a particularly extreme agenda based on outright denial of the science of climate change, similar to other right-wing populist parties across Europe.

For instance, a document called “Our contract with you” on the Reform UK website contains demonstrably false claims about climate change.

It states, “Net zero means reducing man-made CO2 emissions to stop climate change. It can’t. Climate change has happened for millions of years, before man- made CO2 emissions, and will always change. We are better to adapt to warming, rather than pretend we can stop it.”

Reform UK’s peculiar obsession with climate change denial shows that it is not only ignoring the scientists but is also out of step with the overwhelming majority of the UK public. The latest polling by YouGov found that 69 per cent of the public agree that “the world’s climate is changing as a result of human activity”.

Opinion surveys also show that Reform UK’s misinformation campaign about climate change is not attracting support. Recent polling by Opinium for the Conservative Environment Network revealed that most voters, including supporters of Reform UK, back climate action. The party’s opposition to climate change policies is not gaining popularity. It is the party’s stance on immigration that is mainly responsible for its current levels of support.