Tourist numbers plunge 83% but confidence slowly rising

International touristarrivals were down 83 per cent in the first quarter of 2021 as widespread travel restrictions remained in place. However, the UNWTO Confidence Index shows signs of a slow uptick in confidence.

Between January and March 2021 destinations around the world welcomed 180 million fewer international arrivals compared to the first quarter of last year. Asia and the Pacific continued to suffer the lowest levels of activity with a 94 per cent drop in international arrivals over the three-month period. Europe recorded the second largest decline with -83 per cent, followed by Africa (-81 per cent), the Middle East (-78 per cent) and the Americas (-71 per cent). This all follows on from the 73 per cent fall in worldwide international tourist arrivals recorded in 2020, making it the worst year on record for the sector.

UNWTO Secretary General Zurab Pololikashvili said: "There is significant pent-up demand and we see confidence slowly returning. Vaccinations will be key for recovery, but we must improve coordination and communication while making testing easier and more affordable if we want to see a rebound for the summer season in the northern hemisphere."

Vaccinations will be key for recovery, but we must improve coordination and communication while making testing easier and more affordable if we want to see a rebound for the summer season in the northern hemisphere.

The latest survey of the UNWTO panel of tourism experts shows prospects for the May-August period improving slightly. Alongside this, the pace of the vaccination rollout in some key source markets as well as policies to restart tourism safely, most notably the EU digital green certificate, have boosted hopes for a rebound in some of these markets.

Overall, 60 per cent expect a rebound in international tourism only in 2022, up from 50 per cent in the January 2021 survey. The remaining 40 per cent see a potential rebound in 2021, though this is down slightly from the percentage in January. Nearly half of the experts do not see a return to 2019 international tourism levels before 2024 or later, while the percentage of respondents indicating a return to pre-pandemic levels in 2023 has somewhat decreased (37 per cent), when compared to the January survey.

Tourism experts point to the continued imposition of travel restrictions and the lack of coordination in travel and health protocols as the main obstacle to the sector's rebound. The Impact of Covid on Tourism cuts global exports by 4 per cent

The UNWTO world tourism barometer also shows the economic toll of the pandemic. International tourism receipts in 2020 declined by 64 per cent in real terms (local currencies, constant prices), equivalent to a drop of over $900 billion, cutting the overall worldwide exports value by over 4 per cent in 2020. The total loss in export revenues from international tourism (including passenger transport) amounts to nearly $ 1.1 trillion. Asia and the Pacific (-70 per cent in real terms) and the Middle East (-69 per cent) saw the largest drops in receipts.

The world has and continues to suffer sizeable losses and setbacks due to Covid-19. Not least among those setbacks is the shock to the travel and tourism sector. As 90 per cent of the global population adjusted to life under travel restrictions and others stayed home in fear of the virus itself, the sector came to a near-total standstill. Communities, large and small, depending on tourism are shouldering the burden of zero revenues, and millions have been furloughed or laid off within a few short months. Indeed, more than 121 million global travel and tourism jobs and an estimated $3.4 trillion in global GDP could be lost as a result of Covid-19 according to WTTC's baseline scenario; a figure which could reach 197 million jobs before the end of the year according to our downside scenario due to lack of international coordination and international leadership.