Will Oct 8 Bring Stability In J&K?

Here, anti-country elements will try to add fuel and create a wedge between the UT and the Centre. History has shown how these pro-separatist and Pakistan-backed elements have played foul and exploited sentiments, particularly in Kashmir. This is the real challenge for the new dispensation – to maintain peace, and a sense of security, and not allow the valley to fall again into a Pakistan-sponsored trap

In Jammu & Kashmir, will BJP or NC-Congress or any other party form the government, or will the NC-Congress-PDP combination come together to keep BJP out? Or will there be an out-of-the-box surprise? The answer will be known on October 8 when the counting takes place.

The Jammu & Kashmir Assembly poll results will be keenly observed as much is at stake for the Union Territory’s happiness quotient, peace and security.

Having the Assembly elections after a gap of 10 years, and the first after the abrogation of Article 370, is the first step towards maintaining this quotient. The participation of people in the democratic process was a clear message from J&K that they want the ballot and not the bullet.

In the previous elections, Jammu had all along been keen on polling; the issues were in Kashmir where boycott calls of Pakistan-backed separatist groups and terror threats would force voters to stay away. This has changed now. Since the abrogation of Article 370, there have been no boycott calls and people are voting voluntarily.

The 2024 Assembly polls in three phases recorded an overall voter turnout of 63.45 per cent, a little less than the 2014 percentage of 65. Even the traditional boycott bastions like Sopore in Kashmir logged the highest turnout in Assembly polls in the last 30 years. Sopore is the place where Hurriyat Conference’s late Chairman Syed Ali Shah Geelani hailed from and unleashed the boycott blackmail for almost three decades since the advent of terrorism in 1989. But, this time Sopore also voted.

Who voted for whom and what will be the outcome of the counting is a great guessing game. But, the new combination, whichever it is, that takes over the reins will greatly define the future course of the UT.

Since the abrogation of Article 370 and reorganisation of the State, J&K has been under Central rule through the Lieutenant Governor. During this period, there has been infrastructural development in both regions of the UT, tourism is booming and other businesses are also doing well. Kashmir valley has remained peaceful despite terror-related incidents and desperate Pakistan propaganda. The UT, the valley in particular, has witnessed increased public participation in all government schemes and programmes.

Currently, the UT is largely peaceful with booming tourism and other businesses. The unrest that was visible before the abrogation of Article 370 is no longer there. Stone pelting has ceased, instigators are jailed and former pelters are now engaged in studies, business, or jobs. A few politicians still try to instigate people with calls for dialogue with Pakistan or throwing open the LoC, but they are no longer successful in creating a sensation.

J&K's gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to be at Rs 2.63 lakh crore in FY25, growing 7.5 per cent over FY24. The GDP is likely to double in the next five years with emphasis on the service sector, industries, agriculture, horticulture and tourism, according to the J&K Economic Survey 2022-23. The past five years saw the Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) grow 54 per cent from Rs 1.60 lakh crore in 2018-19.

The tourism sector has witnessed unprecedented growth in the UT, especially in the last few years. The sector has recorded an annual average growth rate of 15.13 per cent during the last three years. As per the government statistics, 1,08,41,009 tourists visited the UT between January and June. In 2023, the number was 2,11,24,674; 1,88,64,332 tourists in 2022; 1,13,14,884 in 2021 and 34,70,834 tourists in 2020. Tourism is ever increasing and so is the growth in the horticulture and handicraft sectors.

With the LG rule as the benchmark for the new dispensation, the challenges are manifold. The prominent ones are maintaining peace and security, tackling Pakistan's terror onslaughts and sinister propaganda, and maintaining the pace of development.

Restoring statehood to the UT will be the first big test for the new government. The Centre has recently amended J&K’s Transaction of Business rules to enhance the LG’s powers to have the ultimate say in all matters related to police, public order, transfers and postings, and it has also okayed the nomination of five members to the Assembly. In case a non-BJP combination comes to power after the results, there is a likelihood of frequent wrangling and tension between the LG and the new government.

Here, anti-country elements will try to add fuel and create a wedge between the UT and the Centre. History has shown how these pro-separatist and Pakistan-backed elements have played foul and exploited sentiments, particularly in Kashmir. This is the real challenge for the new dispensation – to maintain peace, and a sense of security, and not allow the valley to fall again into a Pakistan-sponsored trap. The October 8 results will be a watershed moment in J&K’s recent history.