Will KCR bring in KTR to fend off younger rivals?

Last week, Telangana, the youngest State of India, witnessed key political developments. While Anumula Revanth Reddy took charge as the president of Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee (TPCC), the State wing of the Indian National Congress; YS Sharmila, the only daughter of Dr YS Rajasekhara Reddy, the last popular Chief Minister of undivided Andhra Pradesh, floated her own political party called YSR Telangana Party. A few days before these two key events, Telangana BJP president Bandi Sanjay Kumar announced his plans to go on a padayatra (walkathon) from August second week.

These fast-paced developments made some believe whether election fever gripped the State a bit early. Anyway, going by the current political atmosphere, Telangana is heading for an interesting political battle as it gets closer to 2023 Assembly polls.

But Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) supremo Kalvakuntla Chandrashekar Rao is still a dominant political force in Telangana. He emerged much stronger after the bifurcation as he succeeded in decimating one political rival after another in the last seven years or so. At present, he and his political party are enjoying unipolar status on the political firmament of the country's youngest State. And the pink party is strong- politically, financially and strategy-wise.

But as happened in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and several other States, and as is happening in Uttar Pradesh now, Telangana will eventually transform into a bipolar political landscape with two dominant parties supplemented and supported by other political hues. However, which party will emerge as the main rival to TRS is a trillion-rupee question. The 2023 polls will obviously throw up an answer. Till then, the political opportunity is open to all. The changing political dynamics in Telangana should be seen from this angle.

But how do the current Opposition leaders stack up against TRS? All said and done, Revanth Reddy is the most popular Congress leader in Telangana now. This was amply evident when his political coronation happened amid much fanfare and fireworks last week. Gandhi Bhavan, the headquarters of TPCC, seemed to have gained some of its past glory. Further, the new TPCC chief is considered by many as the staunchest critic of KCR, as Kalvakuntla Chandrashekar Rao is popularly known. But Telangana Congress is at its lowest ebb now. Reviving the Grand Old Party is not going to be an easy task. It will test his leadership skills even though he has good following in younger generation, especially among young Congress cadre.

On his part, BJP's Sanjay seems to be good at groundwork. This is evident in the way BJP is gaining traction in hinterlands. BJP being in power at the Centre is an added advantage. So is Modi's popularity which is still high despite his government's failure to handle Covid 2.0 effectively. Time will tell whether these factors will bring in political dividends for the saffron party in Telangana.

As far as Sharmila is concerned, she has taken an unnecessary risk by launching a political party in Telangana. She seems to have been misguided. But let me save it for another day.

It is said everything is fair in politics so long as it's not illegal. But with younger and belligerent leaders like Sanjay and Revanth jumping in the fray, the bigger question now is whether KCR himself will take on them or leave it to his son KT Rama Rao by anointing him as Chief Minister. Going by their belligerence thus far, the Telangana BJP and Congress chiefs will not hesitate to use harsh and unpalatable language against KCR if push comes to shove. KCR has equally sharp tongue. But will he be able to take such a stinging criticism from the younger lot after leading the Telangana movement and being Chief Minister for over nine years? There has been widespread speculation in political circles for a long time that KCR will pass on the baton to his son sooner than later. KCR is known for springing political surprises. No surprise if KCR brings in KTR to fend off the blistering attacks from the younger rivals.

Of course, rhetorical statements and comments are common in politics. But rhetoric will never bring in votes. As I mentioned several times in my articles, the path to political power for Opposition leaders is narrow with complex turns and hairpin bends. The first path-to-power for a political party or politician is to instil confidence among the electorate that it or he can provide a better dispensation than the existing one. This is what worked for Gujarati strongman Narendra Modi in 2014. The second path opens when a party or leader in power performs below par and pursues misplaced priorities, leading to a strong anti-incumbency wave. We saw that in Andhra Pradesh when YSRCP founder YS Jagan Mohan Reddy trounced seasoned politician like TDP supremo Nara Chandrababu Naidu hands-down. The third path is the caste arithmetic as is evident in some States like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Caste arithmetic embodies two key elements. India is home to both politically-strong and numerically-strong castes. And both play key roles in elections. Tapping all the key elements is essential for a political party to emerge victorious in the polls.Telangana is no different.

As I observed during my travel across Uttar Pradesh during 2019 General Elections, some parts of Karnataka in 2018 Assembly polls there and other States during other polls, the Indian voters are smart, and they know what they want in elections. If a political leader thinks that Modi's historic victories in 2014 and 2019 are fluke, he is doing at his own peril. This applies to KCR's emphatic wins in 2014 and 2018 as well. So, the Opposition in Telangana has its task cut out.

Some say that the upcoming Assembly by-polls in Huzurabad necessitated by the resignation of senior TRS leader Eatala Rajender after his dismissal from the Cabinet over alleged illegal land transactions, will give ample signals about what is going to happen in 2023. But it's very unlikely as by-elections are fought on different metrics and so they will never indicate the accurate course of the political winds in the State. Rajender, a four-time MLA, joined BJP after he was sacked from the Cabinet. He will contest on the saffron party's ticket while TRS is on the lookout for a new face.

Nevertheless, the real political battle in Telangana is still two-and-a-half years away. That's a pretty long time in politics. But preparations for that intriguing political battle have already begun. That would be interesting, for sure. The political party which develops a pragmatic strategy, adopts a pragmatic approach and succeeds in convincing people that it can provide a better, viable and stable political alternative, will certainly make a mark in 2023. Where there is a will, there is a way, isn't it? Sit and enjoy the unfolding political slugfest in Telangana if you are not interested in politics!