Why Is The BJP Keen To Hoist The Saffron Flag In Tamil Nadu?

After Tripura, Bengal, and Odisha, Kerala and Tamil Nadu are the two remaining states for the BJP where the lotus is yet to bloom on a large canvas. Given Amit Shah's strategic acumen and his ability to work with meticulous attention, the BJP can expect significant outcomes from him

Having already established a solid presence in three out of the four southern states, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has now resolved to hoist the saffron flag in Tamil Nadu. It has demonstrated its influence and dominance.

The BJP has tasted power several times in Karnataka, is currently a partner in power in Andhra Pradesh, and has established a strong foothold in Telangana as well. Only Tamil Nadu remains where the BJP, despite having a presence for decades, has not been able to make a significant impact. This has been a matter of concern as well as contemplation for the BJP, and the recent announcement of the alliance between AIADMK and BJP is part of this process. The credit for making this alliance smooth and shaping it according to the party's needs goes to Home Minister Amit Shah, as this task was not as easy this time.

The alliance between AIADMK and BJP is not new. The BJP had laid the foundation for an alliance with this party back in 1998. The credit for forming Atal Bihari Vajpayee's government in 1998 goes to the AIADMK. As long as J Jayalalithaa was alive, the AIADMK maintained a close relationship with the BJP leadership. When Jayalalithaa allied with the Congress in 1999, Karunanidhi aligned the DMK with the BJP and enjoyed the benefits of power until 2004.

To expand its base in the State, the BJP adopted a 'go it alone' (Ekla Chalo Re) policy and handed over the leadership to the dynamic former IPS officer Annamalai. Annamalai targeted the DMK as well as the AIADMK and toured the entire State. The result was that just before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the AIADMK bid farewell to the NDA and contested the elections with some partners. The results favored neither the BJP nor the AIADMK. The DMK reaped all the benefits. Both the BJP and the AIADMK realized that to defeat the DMK, which came to power with a 46 per cent vote share, in next year's assembly elections, it is necessary to join hands with the BJP, which holds an 11 per cent vote share. This is where Amit Shah's role was crucial; he went to Chennai for two days and returned only after announcing the alliance. Even before this, Amit Shah has turned many political possibilities into reality.

After Tripura, Bengal, and Odisha, Kerala and Tamil Nadu are the two remaining states for the BJP where the lotus is yet to bloom on a large canvas. Given Amit Shah's strategic acumen and his ability to work with meticulous attention, the BJP can expect significant outcomes from him.

The Tamil Nadu Assembly elections are scheduled for next year. The formula the DMK is preparing to return to power includes a mix of Tamil pride and the language controversy. Stalin and his entire family are currently allegedly involved in gross corruption and illegal activities, but the agenda being set revolves around anti-Hindi sentiments, alleged step-motherly treatment of the South by the Centre, and arbitrary delimitation. Modi and Amit Shah are being portrayed as staunchly communal leaders who disrupt the federal structure. It is common courtesy for the Chief Minister to receive the Prime Minister during his visit to the state, but recently when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Tamil Nadu, Chief Minister Stalin deliberately absented himself. It is clear that the DMK wants to contest the election by prioritizing confrontational politics with the Centre rather than merely opposing the BJP. This presents a dual challenge for the BJP. Maintaining the influence of the central NDA government in Tamil Nadu is administratively necessary, while keeping the Tamil populace connected with national issues is also essential for national unity and prosperity.

Sensitive State

Strategically, Tamil Nadu is a sensitive state with direct links to Sri Lanka. China is continuously increasing its foothold in Sri Lanka; in such a scenario, having a party in power in Tamil Nadu that blindly opposes the Centre raises serious questions for the national interest. The BJP has contested every Lok Sabha or Assembly election in Tamil Nadu but has not achieved significant success yet. In 2014, Pon Radhakrishnan won the Lok Sabha election from Kanyakumari, but the subsequent Lok Sabha elections in 2019 and 2024 brought no success for the BJP from Tamil Nadu. Although the party managed to secure an 11 per cent vote share in the state, this is not enough to defeat an opposing party. On the other hand, after its strong announcement of leaving the BJP alliance in 2023, the AIADMK was also left regretting its decision. Despite significant efforts, it received only 21 per cent of the votes. The AIADMK leadership also knows that if they want to secure more than 40 per cent of the votes in the next election, they no longer have the option of rejecting the BJP, which holds an 11 per cent vote share. The BJP has now become their biggest necessity.

For the BJP, Tamil Nadu is not just a field for political struggle; an ideological battle must also be fought. The Centre is concerned by the Stalin government's attempts to make the National Education Policy controversial and portray the three-language formula as an attempt to impose Hindi. Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah themselves have clarified multiple times that giving equal respect to all Indian languages is part of their thinking and the BJP's principles. Providing facilities for technical education in the Tamil language is also part of this approach. The Modi government has undertaken several initiatives like the installation of the Sengol in the Parliament building, the revival of the Kashi Tamil Sangamam, introducing foreign guests to Tamil symbols and gifts, and making the collected works of Tamil poet and freedom fighter Subramania Bharati accessible to people. Despite this, the DMK is preparing for the election by portraying the BJP and its leadership as anti-Tamil. Evidently, the BJP wants to convey to the entire Tamil Nadu how close the state and its people are to their hearts.

Some people say that Tamil Nadu is difficult for the BJP because votes are not garnered here in the name of Hindutva. Meaning, Tamil Nadu is considered a 'most secular' state. But these same people do not explain how Muslim League politics thrives in Tamil Nadu. The Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) has been active in Tamil Nadu politics since 1948. They have, and have had, members in the Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha, and the Legislative Assembly.

Amit Shah is always aware of the ground reality. He has a clear picture regarding Tamil Nadu. He wants to move forward with the AIADMK by formulating a Common Minimum Program right away, but he knows his ultimate goal. The DMK's arrogance will be his main weapon. If a change in government is necessary for the people, then who knows better than Amit Shah how to achieve it?

(The author is Delhi-based senior journalist and writer. He is author of Gandhi's Delhi which has brought to the forth many hidden facts about Mahatma Gandhi)