Telangana's 2024 election dynamics unveiled by tracker poll

Hyderabad: The recent South First-Peoples Pulse Tracker Poll conducted for the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Telangana provides a detailed analysis of the potential outcomes for various political parties.

Unveiling Electoral Projections

The latest South First-Peoples Pulse Tracker Poll is shedding light on the anticipated outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Telangana. With the Congress emerging victorious in the state's recent Assembly polls, all eyes are on its performance in the parliamentary arena. Preliminary projections hint at a potential eight to 10-seat win for the Congress, while the BJP faces an uphill battle to surpass its previous performance. The Ram temple agenda isn’t a selling point here. Similarly, the Bharath Rashtra Samithi (BRS) confronts a slightly diminished outlook with three to five seats compared to its 2019 results. The party needs to up its ante having recently lost the Assembly elections.

A Detailed Methodological Approach

Spanning from February 11th to 17th, the poll engaged a comprehensive sampling methodology involving 4,600 respondents. By juxtaposing insights gleaned from the survey with the results of the Assembly elections, intriguing patterns emerge, particularly concerning segment-wise victories for Congress and the BRS.

Anticipating Vote Share Dynamics

The forecast paints a nuanced picture of vote share dynamics in the upcoming elections. The Congress is expected to maintain its vote share from the Assembly polls, hovering around the 40 per cent mark. Conversely, the BJP may witness a notable uptick, potentially reaching 23 per cent, buoyed by the influence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The BRS, however, is expected to experience a six-percentage-point decline in vote share, dropping from 37.4 per cent to 31 per cent.

Unearthing Demographic Trends

A granular analysis across age groups, communities, genders, and geographical regions underscores the Congress' continued dominance over its rivals. Notably, there's discernible traction among Muslim voters in Telangana with 52 per cent leaning more towards the Congress for the impending Lok Sabha polls, signalling potential shifts in traditional voting patterns while the BRS sees a drop in the Muslim votes to 38 per cent.

The Telangana Congress party seems to be gaining ground gender-wise with women (47%) preferring it compared to men (37%), and in the rural parts of Telangana where the party is blissfully content basking in its recent highs. Interestingly, BJP has a lead over BRS in the 18-25 age group voters, among the OBCs and the Reddy community.

Evaluating Governance and Performance

The Congress, in power in Telangana for less than three months, is at the moment enjoying a positive sentiment. About 34 per cent of respondents rated its governance as good, while 33 per cent found it acceptable. However, there's no room for complacency as 40 percent rated the performance of sitting MPs negatively.

While, all three sitting Congress MPs who contested the Assembly polls emerged victorious, three out of four BJP MPs lost the seats. Additionally, one BRS MP out of nine who contested also secured a win.

Assessing BJP and Brand Modi

The BJP's significant presence in Telangana has been primarily observed in Adilabad, Nizamabad, Karimnagar, and Hyderabad-Ranga Reddy. However, the BRS poses strong competition, resulting in a triangular contest. In the Scheduled Caste reserved constituencies like Nagarkurnool, Warangal, and Peddapalli, the BJP may receive single-digit vote shares. Despite this, Narendra Modi remains a preferred choice for the prime ministerial position, backed by 34 per cent of survey participants compared to Rahul Gandhi's 23 per cent. Notably, the gap between Modi and Rahul is narrower in Telangana than elsewhere, especially in the North.

Identifying Major Issues and Performances

According to the tracker poll, respondents major concerns rested on price rise, unemployment, MSP of crops, housing, and health. Views on the performance of the Modi government over the past decade vary, with only 22 per cent considering it good and 28 per cent finding it acceptable. Regarding the government's prospects for re-election, 30 per cent are in favour, 28 per cent are uncertain, and 30 per cent oppose the idea. Furthermore, 39 per cent rate the Central government's performance as poor, with 11 per cent undecided.

Impact of the Ram Temple Inauguration

The inauguration of the Ram temple appears to have left mixed impressions, with 22 per cent strongly impacted and 33 per cent unaffected by its significance.

Insights into Poll Methodology

The tracker poll, commissioned by South First and conducted by People’s Pulse from February 11 to 17, adopted a meticulous methodology. Conducted across all 17 Parliament segments in Telangana, it selected three Assembly segments per Parliament segment using the probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling method. With a total of 51 Assembly segments and five polling stations per segment chosen through systematic random sampling, around 15-20 samples were collected per polling station, totalling 4,600 samples. The survey comprised structured questionnaires and face-to-face interviews to ensure comprehensive data collection reflecting diverse demographics.