On The Subcontinental Chessboard: Bharat’s Covert Ops Shape Strategy

Bharat's geopolitical strategy is evolving to leverage covert tactics and strategic alliances. On the subcontinental chessboard, subtle moves and calculated partnerships are shaping its response to regional and global challenges, ensuring national security and advancing its influence without direct confrontation

In September 2024, during the G20 Summit in New Delhi, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reiterated a message he had previously emphasized at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Russia: “This is not the era of war.” While the statement captured global headlines as a call for peace, it did not mean Bharat was giving up its right to defend itself against the fifth-generation warfare unleashed against it by its adversaries—China and Pakistan—and its rival ally, the West, led by the United States of America.

A deeper analysis of PM Modi’s message, when analysed in conjunction with the targeted events allegedly orchestrated by Bharat around and beyond the subcontinent, suggests the messaging from New Delhi was layered with strategic nuance. Was Bharat subtly indicating that the evolving geopolitical realities required a different kind of response—one rooted in covert operations, strategic alliances, and non-traditional warfare? Given Bharat’s precarious geography, this stance becomes critical through New Delhi’s geopolitical lens. India is surrounded by hostile neighbours, many of whom are either directly influenced by or used as pawns by larger powers like China and the United States. Think of the Indian subcontinent as a colossal chessboard, with Bharat on one side playing the black pieces while its adversaries—China, Pakistan, and its geopolitical "adversarial partner," the USA—manoeuvre the white pieces.

Chinese Checkers: Salami Slicing, the String of Pearls & Political Manipulation

China has employed a three-pronged strategy against India, including a land-grabbing tactic referred to as "Salami Slicing"—where Beijing incrementally tries to gain territory along the Line of Actual Control, which eventually saw the Galwan Valley clashes. Simultaneously, it has been weaving a military network in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) by strategically acquiring key seaports to encircle India; these strategic outposts are referred to as the "String of Pearls." Indian security experts at the Jaipur Dialogues Summit 2024 observed that China's interference can be seen in its attempts to affect internal dynamics by funding local political parties and inciting unrest in the northeastern region.

The USA: The Geopolitical Adversarial Partner

The United States has played a dual role in the region, sometimes acting as a supportive ally while undermining Bharat’s interests at critical junctures. The recent regime change in Bangladesh, orchestrated by the US deep state to gain control of Saint Martin’s Island in the Bay of Bengal, is a case in point. Washington’s continued support for Pakistan, despite its destabilising role in South Asia, has often frustrated Indian policymakers. This contradictory position of the US has led Bharat’s think tanks to devise the "strategic autonomy" policy, whereby Bharat makes decisions based on emerging global geopolitical trends that suit its security interests.

Pakistan: The Perennial Adversary

Since independence, Pakistan has waged a relentless hybrid war against India, ranging from conventional warfare and state-sponsored terrorism to economic subversion and covert destabilisation efforts.

Taking the Queen Out In the Bay of Bengal

The political instability in Bangladesh following regime changes presented both challenges and opportunities for Bharat. According to Indian security observers, New Delhi utilized its covert military partnerships, particularly with the Arakan Army, an ethnic armed group in Myanmar, to secure critical territories in Bangladesh, including the St. Martin's Islands, thus maintaining a favourable balance of power. This approach signifies a significant shift in India’s strategic thinking—leveraging covert operations to protect national interests without direct confrontation.

The Castling Move Using the Taliban

India's engagement with the Taliban 2.0 by providing humanitarian aid, such as food and medical supplies, represents a significant shift in its foreign policy. Bharat aims to prevent Afghan soil from being used for anti-India activities. Although it has not officially recognised the Taliban regime, this quiet diplomacy approach highlights India's evolving realpolitik. Furthermore, there are indications that the current fallout between Islamabad and the Taliban regime has New Delhi's influence.

Unleashing the Power of the Pawn

Pawns can be quite powerful in chess, especially as the game progresses; their potential increases significantly when they reach the opposite side of the board. Upon promotion, a pawn can become any piece, dramatically changing the course of a game.

The Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW), Bharat’s foreign intelligence agency, whose "primary function is gathering foreign intelligence, counter-terrorism, counter-proliferation, advising Indian policymakers, and advancing India’s foreign strategic interests," seems to have been unleashed by Modi's government to ensure conflict doesn't come to India. Throughout 2024, “unknown gunmen” have neutralized key terror operatives across and beyond Pakistan, sending a strong message about New Delhi’s growing impatience with the West's dual standards.

Looking Ahead to 2025: Challenges and Opportunities

The year 2025 promises to be volatile for India’s neighbourhood. Bangladesh remains a hotbed of geopolitical manoeuvring, with the potential for further unrest. Pakistan faces the risk of implosion, with economic collapse and internal strife along its western borders pushing the nuclear-armed state toward instability. While Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and the LAC seem relatively stable for now, the Chinese threat will persist. Internal players on the payrolls of the deep state and China are waiting for a misstep by the Modi government to create disturbances and unrest.

Mastering the Chess move - 'Queen's Gambit Declined'

In an age where covert operations and proxy conflicts replace traditional wars, India must adopt an agile and assertive stance. The past years have witnessed major global powers using covert operations openly to destabilise India. As an emerging global power with legitimate security concerns, Bharat has every right to adopt similar tactics to safeguard its sovereignty.

To navigate these challenges, India is pursuing a multi-pronged strategy, including enhancing covert capabilities and building ties with unelected rulers to neutralise threats without direct attribution.

Prime Minister Modi’s statement, “This is not the era of war,” reflects a broader truth, but the battles for influence, security, and regional dominance continue unabated. Bharat’s ability to adapt to these realities will determine its position in the global order in the years to come.