Maharashtra poll dates announced: A crucial test for BJP's strength

With the Election Commission announcing that the elections to the 288-member Maharashtra assembly will be held on November 20, all eyes are on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The party is the single largest in the ruling Mahayuti coalition and is looking to make a strong comeback after a disappointing performance in the Lok Sabha elections held six months ago.

BJP's Recent Struggles in Maharashtra

Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis offered his resignation on June 5, a day after the BJP's poor showing in the Lok Sabha elections. The party managed to win only nine seats, a significant drop from the 23 seats it secured in both 2014 and 2019. This decline was reflected in the vote share as well, which dipped from 27.84% to 26.45%.

The Stakes for BJP

The upcoming assembly election is a critical test for the BJP. A victory would bolster the party’s morale, especially after their unexpected success in Haryana, where they overcame a decade of anti-incumbency. Securing a larger share of seats in Maharashtra would also strengthen the BJP's position in negotiations with alliance partners Shiv Sena and NCP.

A strong performance would counter the opposition's accusations of ‘Operation Lotus,’ a term used to describe alleged efforts by the BJP to destabilize opposition-led state governments. Conversely, if the BJP underperforms, it could tarnish Prime Minister Narendra Modi's image and validate the opposition INDIA bloc's claims that his popularity is waning.

Historical Context

The BJP has been the single largest party in the Maharashtra assembly for the past decade. In 2014, the party contested the assembly elections independently after splitting from the Shiv Sena. Under the leadership of Narendra Modi and then-party chief Amit Shah, the BJP won 122 seats. The Shiv Sena later rejoined them, and both parties governed in coalition until 2019.

In the 2019 elections, the BJP secured 105 seats while the Shiv Sena won 56. However, a disagreement over the chief ministership led the Shiv Sena to form a coalition with the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), resulting in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government led by Uddhav Thackeray. This coalition was short-lived as Eknath Shinde, a Shiv Sena member, rebelled with 40 MLAs in 2022, reducing the ruling alliance to a minority. Shinde then allied with the BJP. Recently, Ajit Pawar, nephew of NCP chief Sharad Pawar, split from his uncle's party and joined the ruling coalition.

The Maharashtra assembly elections on November 20 are set to be a significant indicator of the BJP's political standing and influence, not just in the state but nationally.