Kahin Khushi, Kahin Gham – Don’t Blame It Only On EVM

Discipline, dear Rahul, is what is the most important factor that you have to learn from the BJP. Come what may, you cannot beat them

This revdi culture is very dangerous for the development of the country…Revdi culture needs to be removed from the country’s politics – Prime Minister Narendra Modi

The Maharashtra Legislative Assembly election results are surprising, shocking and even inexplicable. The BJP-led Mahayuti (great alliance) tsunami will long be discussed in political circles, particularly among analysts and the Opposition. The BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde)-NCP (Ajit Pawar) will bask in the glory while the rival, unsuccessful Maha Vikas Aghadi (Great Development Alliance) will sulk. In both the alliances, Maha also denotes Maharashtra.

When a TV channel asked me how to explain the BJP victory, I said it’s a tsunami beyond explanation. There was no perceivable wave of any sort as was felt post-Indira Gandhi assassination, after Rajiv Gandhi’s death, the debacle of UPA2. The voting percentage was not overenthusiastic either. It was just about 66 per cent. Half of Mumbai did not vote. But on a close analysis, a silent undercurrent created by the Dharmayudh polarisation came to the fore.

In the Navy, submarines are called silent killers. In the case of BJP’s victory, the RSS played the role of the silent killer of the Opposition. The RSS-Bajrang Dal cadre was at its best mobilising all Hindutva base, in fact even strengthening it. How and why the RSS, which was not active during the Lok Sabha poll held between April and June this year, developed such a sudden love for the BJP? The RSS was apparently peeved with the BJP leadership on several counts: BJP president J P Nadda literally said the party can run in its own without the RSS support; the Mo-Sha combine ignored the RSS and took their own decisions; Modi called himself as God’s own gift to the nation; all these led to RSS supremo Mohan Bhagwat virtually admonishing the BJP leadership, without naming any, by saying that man wants to become superman and even god! The non-cooperative RSS forced the Modi-led government to contend with 240 seats in the 543-member (plus two nominated members) Lok Sabha and seek crutches from Chandra Babu Naidu and Nitish Kumar’s parties.

So, what made Nagpur to have a change of heart and mind to throw its weight behind the BJP in Maharashtra. But could the RSS not do wonders for the saffron alliance? Even that East Indian and tribal-dominated State also reeled under all kinds of hate speeches that were aimed at the Hindutva polarisation. The BJP assigned UP CM Yogi Adityanath and Assam CM Hemanta Biswa Sarma as generals of venom to amplify Modi’s Ghusbaithi messaging in their own language. Yogi launched the Batenge Toh Katenge slogan, while Sarma said Jharkhand would turn into a mini-Bangla Desh if JMM comes to power.

Though the Maha Yuti rejected the Batenge-Toh-Katenge sloganeering saying that it is alien to Maharashtra’s culture of embracing an inclusive social fabric as enunciated by Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj, the BJP (read Devendra Fadnavis) coined a variant – Vote Jihad. Irrespective of Fadnavis’ denial, this was aimed at mobilising the Hindutva vote bank. The Muslim community got alienated which was visible in the 25 per cent drop in the vote percentage by the minority community, a newspaper analysis indicated, post the results on Sunday.

Cut to Jharkhand. One size does not fit all. The visibly anti-Muslim campaign did not help the BJP in the face of the massive sympathy wave that Hemant Soren rode on following his release on bail with High Court strictures against the investigation agencies which arrested him in an alleged land scam. So much so, that even Modi had launched a frontal attack on the “corrupt JMM government”. Soren’s wife Kalpana took up the cudgels on behalf of the jailed leader and galvanised the party cadre and network. And once Soren was out of jail, the couple literally stormed the State. Imagine, the two put together addressed over 170 public rallies across the 81 constituencies in the State, campaigning not only for the JMM but for the INDIA bloc candidates, nailing the BJP’s lies. Thus, they effectively neutralised the hate mongering generated by the Roti-Beti-Maati narrative initiated by Modi. To recap in one line, Modi alleged that ‘the INDIA alliance, if voted to power, will snatch away your bread, daughter and land and give it away to infiltrators’.

The BJP ended up with egg-on-its-face as the infiltrator theory backfired. As they say in Hindi, Sau Baat Ki Ek Baat: Jharkhand does not have any international borders for the infiltrators enter the State.

Moreover, the JMM government also had its own version of appeasing the women voters with Maiya Yojana to give Rs 1,000 every month via direct benefit transfer akin to Madhya Pradesh’s Laadli Behan which took the avatar of Laadki Bahin in Maharashtra. The amount was to be raised to Rs 2,500 post the elections. Ruling parties in all the three states managed to stave off anti-incumbency factor with women-centric schemes. The BJP continues to rely heavily on Revdies (free sweets) despite the open opposition by PM Modi and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

As we discussed, while the politics of religion did not work in Jharkhand due to the Soren couple’s stiff resistance, it proved to be a Raam Baan for the BJP in Maharashtra due to a non-existent cohesive Opposition.

Many in the Maha Vikas Aghadi camp failed to note one most important factor that the RSS, which is celebrating its centenary now, plans a mega event soon. It cannot obviously have the event under the MVA rule. This is the crux of the RSS’ active involvement.

The BJP or Eknath Shinde managed to crystalise even the Maratha votes in favour of Hindutva. Maratha reservation proponent Manoj Jharange Patil, who mobilised massive stir just before the Lok Sabha poll, did not actively participate in the elections but his community was left to align with Shinde, in a silent submarine fashion. Please do not forget the fact that Jharange Patil always criticised Deputy CM Fadnavis for the Yuti government’s attempt to scuttle the Maratha agitation and not Shinde.

Thus, the election results turned out to be Kahin Khushi (Jharkhand) and Kahin Gham (in Maharashtra) for the Congress and INDIA.

The Congress needs to blame itself for the Maha debacle considering that leadership remained so contended with the Lok Sabha results after obtaining 99 seats (now it’s a century) that it did not bother to carry on with the INDIA bloc’s steam. Forget the delayed seat sharing formula, the alliance has not worked out even a common minimum programme and agenda for coordination in the House and outside. Some Maharashtra congress leaders were overambitious and overconfident that they wanted a lion’s share of the seats among the MVA partners and blocked the sharing deal till the last minute. Rahul Gandhi did not attend to this issue, perhaps apprehending that the veterans might desert the party.

Discipline, dear Rahul, is what is the most important factor that you have to learn from the BJP. Come what may, you cannot beat them.

There is no point in crying over the spilt milk by blaming it on the EVMs and the election process. The Congress has not seriously taken up the EVM battle to its logical end after the Election Commission fired back at Kharge & Co. There is no point in crying hoarse now about the voter list manipulation because the grand old party too was faced with similar allegations when it was at its high point.

(The columnist is a Mumbai-based author and independent media veteran, running websites and a Youtube channel known for his thought-provoking messaging.)