Bharat's Opportunity Amid Taliban's Pushback Against Pak's Cross-Border Airstrikes

Pakistan's miscalculated airstrikes in Afghanistan have ignited a fierce Taliban retaliation, exposing deep cracks in the once-cosy ties between Kabul and Islamabad. With Pashtun unity surging and Bharat's strategic interests aligning, the stage is set for a geopolitical shift that could redefine the balance of power in the region

Has Pakistan made a critical mistake in its desperate attempt to boost the dwindling morale of its troops by conducting airstrikes in Afghanistan’s Paktika province? Only time will tell. However, for now, this move has provided an opportunity for the Kabul-based Taliban, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and Pashtuns on either side of the Durand Line to unite against their common adversary: the Pakistani establishment.

The Taliban has historically relied on guerrilla warfare, a strategy that inflicted heavy casualties on Soviet and American forces over four decades. However, Pakistan faces a far more significant threat. The close proximity of Pakistan and Afghanistan, the disputed yet shared border, a faltering economy, low troop morale, internal instability, political factionalism led by supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, rising public discontent due to inflation and shortages of essential goods, and increasing international isolation all make Pakistan vulnerable to potential disintegration. Therefore, it seems ill-timed for Pakistan to antagonise the Taliban, who can execute targeted attacks against the Pakistani military.

Reports indicate that the Taliban, which currently holds power in Kabul, mobilised 15,000 of its battle-hardened guerrilla forces—armed with weapons left behind by US troops during their infamous withdrawal in 2021—to launch attacks on multiple locations targeting Pakistani forces stationed along the disputed Durand Line, in retaliation for the deadly airstrikes conducted by the Pakistani Air Force.

Following these retaliatory strikes, the Taliban’s Ministry of Defence issued two key statements that highlight the growing rift between the former allies. The first referenced the border with Pakistan as “beyond the ‘hypothetical line’”—a term used to refer to the disputed Durand Line. It is crucial to note that successive Afghan rulers, governments and people have historically rejected this line as a legitimate international border between the two Islamic nations, as it divides Pashtun families.

The second statement was even more striking, as it was directed at the Pakistani establishment. The statement indicated that the attacks targeted sites that “served as centers and hideouts for malicious elements and their supporters who organised and coordinated attacks in Afghanistan.” This labelling of the Pakistani establishment as “supporters” of “malicious elements”—interpreted as terrorists—aligns with Bharat’s stance that Pakistan supports terrorism. So, is there common ground developing between India and the Taliban?

It’s important to note that, despite an undemocratic regime in Kabul, Bharat has maintained a presence in Afghanistan through its humanitarian efforts. Thus, it is obvious to assume that there must have been interactions leading to meetings of minds between Indians & Afghans on tackling Pakistan’s hostile designs aimed at the two countries.

The key question remains: is there an unbridgeable divide between the Taliban and the Pakistani establishment?

Remember a scene from the Rambo-III movie, where an Afghan interpreter describing his country to Rambo (Sylvester Stallone) says, “This is Afghanistan.” Alexander “tried to conquer this country, “then Genghis Khan, then the British, now Russia” (post-2021, one can add America to the list). He further adds, “Ancient people make prayers about these people- May God deliver us from the venom of the cobra, teeth of the tiger, and the vengeance of the Afghans.” Somebody needs to remind the Pakistani establishment of Afghan history.

Post the scandalous ‘welcome qahwa (green tea)’ hosted to the then Pakistani ISI chief Lt-Gen Faiz Hameed in the lobby of the Kabul Serena Hotel, a lot has changed between the two former allies -Taliban and the Pakistani establishment.

Between April 2022 and December 2024, Pakistani forces carried out three airstrikes on locations in East and Southeast Afghanistan, resulting in hundreds of civilian deaths. But why has the Taliban taken such an aggressive stance against Pakistan?

Deteriorating Pakistan-Taliban Relations

The current standoff between the former allies is a result of several significant incidents that targeted the Pashtun community & Afghan refugees living in Pakistan.

The banning of the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM), a prominent rights group advocating for Pashtun rights, citing security concerns, led to protests and clashes with police, resulting in casualties. Further, between November 2023 and April 2024, Pakistan initiated a mass deportation campaign, ordering the return of undocumented Afghan refugees. It is estimated that over six hundred thousand Afghans were forcibly returned in two phases, citing security concerns and economic challenges. During these deportations, Pakistani officials indulged in looting and abusive behaviour towards women.

Nationalistic Stance of the Taliban

The airstrikes are seen as aggression against their Pashtun community. The Taliban are trying to present themselves as a legitimate government that defends Afghanistan's sovereignty. Airstrikes by foreign nations undermine their authority and public image. Thus, it is a show of strength, but be mindful that given that both countries are under the control of terrorist elements and or supporters, the standoff can escalate, and that can happen quickly.

The recent incidents, such as the brutality faced by Pashtuns by Pakistani law enforcement, the forced evacuation of thousands of Afghans by the Pakistani establishment, and the airstrikes conducted by Pakistani forces within Afghanistan, support the belief that significant rifts exist between these former allies.

Bharat should explore ways to leverage the complex interplay of regional geopolitics, deteriorating bilateral relations, and shifting power dynamics to sandwich Pakistan.

(The author is Founder of My Startup TV)