Bharat’s Golden Opportunity-Doubling Trade With US amid Trump’s Tariff War

Trump’s tariff war with China is more than a trade tiff—it's a geo-economic manoeuvre. Bharat must seize this moment to emerge as a trusted alternative in the global supply chain

When a referee pulls out a yellow card in football or hockey, or the umpire calls a no-ball in cricket, it benefits the opponent and gives them a lead in the game. The same logic applies to geo-economic warfare. Trump's tariff war is the yellow card that’s pushed China "to the ropes."

Rod D. Martin, founder and CEO of Martin Capital, tweeted: "China picked a fight they can’t win."

He was referring to China’s fundamental economic dependency on the US—a fact the Chinese leadership underestimated. As Martin pointed out: "The Chinese cannot replace the US market... "America buys 3x more" than Japan, their "next biggest customer."

According to the US Trade Representative 2024 data, total trade between the US and China stood at $582.4 billion. Of this, US exports to China were $143.5 billion, while imports from China were $438.9 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $295.4 billion. The Top five imports from China include: Electrical Machinery & Equipment; industrial machinery; Toys and Sports Equipment; Furniture and Bedding; and Apparel and Clothing, which can be sourced from across Asia. But, in contrast, China’s imports from the US include Aircraft & Spacecraft and Mineral Fuels & Oils, which are mission-critical for Beijing.

By challenging its biggest buyer (the US), without a replacement in either quantity or dollar value, China made a strategic misstep. The US has over 300 million consumers; the only viable replacement in scale is Bharat. And New Delhi, as we've already seen, isn’t giving Chinese products a free run.

So when Rod Martin says, “Without us, they’re finished,” he isn’t being dramatic—he’s stating a fact backed by trade data.

Trump’s Tariff War: More Than Just Business

Trump’s tariff war is not just about business. It’s geo-economic warfare—a strategic use of economic tools to reshape China’s global influence and reduce US dependence on Chinese manufacturing.

So what is Geoeconomic Warfare?

It refers to the use of these economic instruments-such as tariffs, sanctions, export controls, and investment restrictions, to serve geopolitical goals—weakening adversaries, securing national interests, and altering global power structures without military conflict.

By disrupting China’s economic growth, the US aims to reconfigure global supply chains. This is where Bharat must step up.

Bharat-US Trade: The Numbers Tell the Story

According to 2024 trade data, the total trade between the world’s two largest democracies stands at $129.2 billion. Of this, U.S. exports to Bharat amount to $41.8 billion, while imports from Bharat are at $87.4 billion, resulting in a U.S. trade deficit of $45.6 billion. While the US exports energy, high-tech goods, and aircraft to Bharat. New Delhi, top three exports include Pharmaceuticals, Gems and Precious Metals and Mineral Fuels and Oils. Now, to truly scale this relationship, Bharat should focus on just three new sectors: Toys & Sports Equipment, Furniture & Bedding and Footwear. These are exactly the categories where China dominates US imports—and they’re ripe for disruption.

A Golden Opportunity for Bharat’s MSMEs

This is a golden moment for Bharat’s MSMEs. We have the right mix—young, skilled and semi-skilled human resources, a rising pool of entrepreneurs, and angel/VC investors ready to fund nano to small-scale enterprises (up to Rs 100 crores).

Strategic positioning of MSME

Bharat’s MSMEs must avoid becoming just a cheap alternative. Instead, like our pharmaceutical industry, we must focus on quality and reliability at competitive prices. This ensures we aren't replaced by countries like Bangladesh or Pakistan just on the basis of cheaper labour. Take Apple’s iPhone manufacturing in India as a case study—we’re adding value, not just cutting costs.

How to double Bharat exports to the US?

The situation is apt for Bharat to make inroads into the US market and double its exports to $174 billion in five years by targeting three sectors: toys and sports equipment ($24.8 billion), furniture and bedding ($22.7 billion), and footwear ($11.8 billion). This requires a unified platform connecting MSMEs like manufacturers, raw material suppliers, traders, transporters, warehouses, and institutions like IITs. Bankers, investors, and US-based QA/QC consultants must align Bharat’s manufacturing with global standards.

Thousands of nano and small businesses serving local markets need to upgrade in capacity and quality. Fashion schools and IITs can drive innovative designs, while startups led by young entrepreneurs tap into global trends. PM Modi’s toy manufacturing push, launched in 2020 via the “Aatmanirbhar Bharat” initiative, must now blend traditional toys with modern sports equipment to capture US demand.

What Bharat Must Do?

• l Encourage nano & small manufacturers from the three sectors to scale and upgrade to meet US standards.
• l Leverage IT for smart manufacturing.
• l Scale precision manufacturing to rival China.
• l Invest in technology and worker training..
• l Encourage MSMEs to set up in smaller towns to cut labour and capital costs.

Beyond Borders

Bharat’s entrepreneurs and investors should explore US opportunities in fintech, edutech, food processing, health and wellness (Ayurvedic products), gems, jewellery, and leather goods. These sectors require less labour and can source raw materials & skilled human resources from Bharat. Bharat isn’t just a manufacturing hub but can be a strategic ally for the US in diversifying away from China. By doubling trade, balancing deficits, and fostering investment, Bharat can cement its role as a global economic powerhouse.

(The author is founder of MyStartup TV)