Battle 2024: CanYogi’s magic do wonders for BJP?

It is almost certain that Lok Sabha election fever would have gripped the country by this time next year and political parties would be finalising their manifestoes as well nominees for the battle royal of 2024. Already political parties have started gearing up for the election. In the corridor of powers of Delhi, political pundits are discussing: Would Narendra Modi again be the next Prime Minister of the country? Another question that is hotly discussed and debated now: If the BJP lead National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would retain the power, which State or States play an important role? While there is no debate on the first question, political experts say that BJP can bank upon Uttar Pradesh which sends 80 members in the lower house of the parliament. Thanks to the able leadership of 24x7 active Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, Uttar Pradesh has become the bedrock of BJP lead NDA. Yogi Adithanath has recently asked party workers to start preparations for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and move forward with the target of winning 75 out of the State's 80 seats. In 2019, the BJP had won 62 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh while its ally Apna Dal (S) registered victory in two seats. Will NDA thrash opposition and grab 75 seats out of 80? Yogi Adityanath, who has a reputation of making comments after lot of thought, must have gauged the mood of the voters of gigantic Uttar Pradesh.

"We have to prepare the ground for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections from now only. We should move ahead with the target of winning 75 seats," Yogi Adityanath said at the BJP's one-day State executive meeting in Lucknow.

Those who follow the political mood of the State where both Lord Ram and Lord Krishna were born, BJP has made huge inroads thanks to two reasons. 1. Yogi Adityanath government has changed the very dubious image of the State. Now UP is not known for caste based tensions and communal riots. Now, the state is known for attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and all round growth. Indian investors are too investing in Uttar Pradesh in a big way. Thus, it creates thousands of new jobs. 2. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also contests Lok Sabha poll from Varanasi seat. So, the formidable combo of Modi and Yogi are doing wonders for the State. "In the 2024 general elections, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, we have to march ahead with the target of winning 75 seats in Uttar Pradesh," said a BJP leader.

BJP chances look bright as opposition in UP have not learnt their lessons to fight seriously. They make mockery of themselves with their very irresponsible statements. Imagine Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav has recently predicted that in 2024 the BJP might lose all 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh. “BJP is baar ho sakta hai saari 80 seats haar jaaye [BJP might get defeated in all 80 seats].” Imagine his audacity to make such a hilarious statement.

It goes with saying that the increased focus on Uttar Pradesh is not only due to the State’s importance in the saffron party’s scheme of things as it aims for a third straight term in New Delhi but also due to the evolving national political landscape, where the BJP’s old alliance combinations have changed in other politically crucial States like Maharashtra and Bihar. This has made party strategists turn the spotlight on UP. The BJP has planned to expand its base among the Yadavs, Jatavs and Pasmanda Muslims as part of its strategy to win all 80 Lok Sabha seats in the State. According to experts, Yadavs form 11 per cent of the UP’s population. Dalits are around 21 per cent of the population and Muslim’s presence is estimated at 18 per cent. Among the Dalits and Jatavs are numerically strong. Seventeen Lok Sabha seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes in UP. Yadav and Muslim voters decide in 10 Lok Sabha constituencies each.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had won 62 out of 78 Lok Sabha seats it contested in Uttar Pradesh, forcing Congress down to just one seat in India’s most politically significant State. Even Rahul Gandhi lost from Amethi.

Meanwhile, a serious effort is underway on behalf of the central leadership of the BJP to woo back Other Backward Classes (OBC) leaders into the party fold. The measure is aimed at bolstering the party's ranks before the 2024 General Elections and recapturing the entire non-Yadav OBC space. Sources in the BJP confirmed that channels of communication had been opened with several of these leaders and also leaders of parties who had been allies of the BJP in the past and represented specific caste groups.

Political expert Nistula Hebbar says, “The Samajwadi Party had realised that the BJP’s capture of non-Yadav OBC votes in the 2014, 2017 and 2019 polls had left the Akhilesh Yadav-led party with only Yadavs and Muslims, denting the party’s strength in the State.” The crossing over of these leaders, while not resulting in BJP's loss, had created a narrative and ground crisis for the BJP in the midst of the campaign.

Well, BJP in the run up to 2024 Lok Sabha poll want all the communities from whom it gained support in 2019 to be back in the fold. OBCs comprise nearly 40 per cent of the vote in Uttar Pradesh and the BJP's success in the State has been attributed to the way it has been able to shore up support among non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits in the State. With alliances with the Apna Dal (led by Union Minister Anupriya Patel) and previously with the SBSP, the 2019 polls saw the NDA polls 51.19 per cent of the vote and register a big victory despite the alliance between the SP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). In nutshell, it can safely said that BJP led NDA would give run for its money to opposition in Uttar Pradesh in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections.

(The author is Delhi-based senior journalist and writer. He is author of Gandhi's Delhi which has brought to the forth many hidden facts about Mahatma Gandhi)