As Iran Provokes, Will Israel Respond? Examining High-Stakes Geopolitical Chess Game

Iranian Regime finds itself cornered. Its regional proxies, including Hezbollah and Hamas, have suffered heavy losses due to Israeli strikes, leaving Tehran more vulnerable than ever. While Netanyahu continues to neutralize Hezbollah in Lebanon, his strategy for the Shia nation may involve destabilizing Iran’s leadership through covert tactics aimed at weakening its military and political apparatus

On Monday night, Tehran launched a barrage of “supersonic missiles” targeting Israeli “military positions,” escalating tensions in an already volatile Middle Eastern region. The Iranian attack on the Jewish state could mark a significant shift in the ongoing conflict, bringing both nations into direct confrontation.

Open Source Intelligence Monitor, which focuses on conflict around the world, on its X handle, @sentdefender, claimed that “Israel had told Iran through back channels that they would respond to any attack on their territory, no matter how big or small and not dependent on if there were casualties, with strikes against Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities being directly mentioned as the response.”

Thus, the escalation raises critical questions: What compelled Iran to respond, knowing that Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, is determined and may bring the conflict to Iran’s doorstep? How will the Middle East, particularly Sunni nations, react to Tehran’s direct involvement? Does Israel have the financial and military resources to fight on two fronts?

Iran & Israel are Locked and Loaded: The crisis between the two arch-enemies in the Middle East has been simmering since the Hamas terrorist attacks on innocent Israeli citizens on October 7, 2023. It was never a matter of 'if' but 'when,' and it seems Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, has made his decision. The 85-year-old leader, who has ruled Iran with an iron fist and presided over numerous Iranian governments, is in deteriorating health and counting his remaining days. This may be his chance to go down in the “history books” as a martyr rather than pass away through natural causes. But will Tel Aviv fall into the trap and give him that opportunity? For now, it’s anyone’s guess. The IDF, however, has stated that it will “retaliate against Iran at a time and place of its choosing.” This brings us to the next question: In the event of a direct military confrontation triggered between the two nations, who will the Arab world side with?

Is the Arab World with Tel Aviv? The rivalry between Sunni and Shia factions, which has shaped much of the Middle East’s geopolitics, is a crucial element in understanding why certain Sunni-majority countries might be tacitly backing Israel against Iran. For instance, Saudi Arabia’s rivalry with Iran has long driven its foreign policy, including efforts to counter Iran’s influence in Lebanon and Iraq. Thus, even though Tel Aviv intensified its military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, there have been muted responses from many Middle Eastern nations suggesting implicit approval or even strategic support. Countries like Saudi Arabia, which were expected to rally behind the Palestinian cause, have largely remained silent, reinforcing the idea that their focus is more on containing Iran’s influence in the region. Will the Middle East sit out as observers while Netanyahu and Khamenei go for each other, or will regional powers intervene?

This raises another question: do Sunni nations also desire the end of Ali Khamenei’s Regime? Israel has clarified its opposition to the Iranian Regime, not its people. While Khamenei enjoys support within Iran, many, particularly the Iranian diaspora, seek change. Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last Shah of Iran, lives in the U.S. and is the “founder and leader of the self-styled National Council of Iran,” an exiled opposition group that participates in the “Iranian democracy movement and is a prominent critic of Iran’s Islamic Republic government.” Reza claims on his X handle, @PahlaviReza, that Khamenei is “increasingly isolated,” and further adds, “Let’s be clear: this is the Islamic Republic’s war, not the people of Iran’s.” Netanyahu, too, echoed Reza’s statement when he tweeted, “The people of Iran should know - Israel stands with you.” As part of the “grand plan,” Israel may destabilize Iran’s leadership and Revolutionary Guards through covert operations, cyber warfare, and targeted assassinations, all designed to weaken Iran’s military and political infrastructure.

Source & Support for Two-Front War: The broader question now is not just about military strategy but also about the economics behind Israel’s war efforts. Despite Israel’s strong economy, ranked 29th globally by the IMF, sustaining an extended conflict on multiple fronts requires deep financial resources. While US military aid, amounting to $3.8 billion annually, plays a major role in supporting Israel, it’s possible that other Middle Eastern Sunni nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, may also be providing indirect support to Israel—perhaps through oil deals or other economic exchanges. Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia, in various interviews and discussions, has highlighted the threat posed by Iran to Saudi Arabia and its allies. He has raised concerns regarding Tehran acquiring "potential nuclear capabilities" and its Regime's actions that have contributed to instability in the region. So, there is every reason and incentive for Sunni Nations to weaken Iran, a Shia-majority nation, in a conflict rooted in historical sectarian divides.

Iranian Regime finds itself cornered. Its regional proxies, including Hezbollah and Hamas, have suffered heavy losses due to Israeli strikes, leaving Tehran more vulnerable than ever. While Netanyahu continues to neutralize Hezbollah in Lebanon, his strategy for the Shia nation may involve destabilizing Iran’s leadership through covert tactics aimed at weakening its military and political apparatus.

Dividends of Peace

Peace in the Middle East is critical for advancing initiatives like the Indian-Israeli-European (I2U2) and the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which involve seven countries and the EU. These frameworks aim to strengthen regional cooperation through multi-modal networks, including rail, road, and sea routes, to connect South Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. This infrastructure is designed to promote economic growth and stability. The potential economic impact is substantial, with estimates suggesting over $47 trillion in combined output across sectors like clean energy, food security, technology, infrastructure development, and transportation.

The key question is whether the current Iranian Regime aims to be part of the region’s economic growth or continue down a path that could leave the country in tatters.

(The author is Founder of

My Startup TV)