2024 elections: Modi and RSS bank on hyper-nationalism

A recent editorial in the RSS weekly has inspired a series of TV debates and newspaper commentaries. The editorial is being cited as evidence of the growing unease in the RSS leadership over the sliding charisma of Modi and the weakening impact of Hindutva in polls. Have leaders in the RSS and the BJP started to realize that they are pursuing flawed politics? A careful reading of the article reveals otherwise. Keeping in view the media trends, we can consider the inference a distraction. Since the article appeared a fortnight ago, the recent debate might be trying to divert public attention away from Rahul’s US visit. The BJP leadership is uncomfortable with the way Rahul has expressed himself and could be able to elicit a positive response from the Indian diaspora in the USA. It is trying to change the Rahul-centric debate. However, there is a need to decode what the RSS is saying for 2024 polls. It is important for the simple reason that the saffron organization decides the course the BJP has to adopt.

Only a superficial reading of the editorial will give the impression that the RSS’ perception of Modi's magic is changing.

"Without strong leadership and effective delivery at the regional level, Prime Minister Modi’s charisma and Hindutva as an ideological glue would not be sufficient," says the editorial. This sentence has evoked the entire debate. However, a careful reading makes it clear that the RSS is only endorsing the BJP line that the Congress has won the elections on the promises of freebies. So, the article cautions against extrapolating the Karnataka results to the 2024 elections. It makes it clear that the results, at best, could boost the morale of the Congress and the opposition.

"The result of the Karnataka Assembly elections has surprised many, though they are not shocking. There would be diverse opinions to analyze the results and possible impact. Though extrapolating the outcome in favour of the Congress party to the General Elections 2024 is a daring proposition, it definitely would boost the morale of the opposition in general and the Congress party in particular."

The editorial emphasizes the point, "The ruling party tried its best to galvanize the voters with national-level programs, while the Congress tried its best to keep it at the local level."

Analysts have ignored relevant points and the arrogance embedded in the article. It boasts of the adherence of the BJP to its "national-level programs" while the Congress keeps it to the local level.

The editorial not only defends the BJP’s programs but also defends the Prime Minister. "The positive factors, ideology, and leadership, are genuine assets for the BJP when state-level governance is operational. First time since Prime Minister Modi took the reins at the Centre, the BJP had to defend the corruption charges in an assembly election."

If anything, the RSS is objecting to the weakness in the regional leadership. It also claims that this was the first time the BJP had to defend corruption charges. The claim is completely baseless. The BJP had to face corruption charges when Yediurappa was the Chief Minister. The party had lost elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh because its governments in all these states were facing serious corruption charges.

The article expands its arguments further, saying that it was the state leadership that failed to contain the anti-incumbency. Here also, the article makes it clear that the sitting ministers were facing anti-incumbency, not the BJP government as such.

"The BJP failed to significantly add to the previous vote share in the high-turnout elections, resulting in poor seat conversion. Anti-incumbency against the sitting Ministers should be a concerning factor for the BJP."

Since the article is meant to suggest introspection, there is no need to confront its ideas. However, it is essential to know the strategy of the RSS for the 2024 elections. If the ideas placed in the article are any indication, it is clear that the RSS is still not ready to accept Rahul Gandhi in his new avatar.

"At the same time, Congress tends to gain when the role of national-level leadership is minimal and the election campaign is kept at the local level," says the article.

If we carefully go through the article, it becomes clear that, in the name of introspection, the RSS is only emphasizing consolidation on the basis of Hindutva while rejecting assertions of identities based on caste, language, and region. This is the worst nightmare for the Hindutva outfit. The article accuses the Congress of mobilizing castes and using linguistic identity without "considering the long-term repercussions." Was only Congress using these identities? The article conveniently forgets open announcements by the BJP leaders about the benefits they intended to give to different caste groups.

The inferences drawn in the media from this article are a total misreading of what it has actually said. By picking up on the point that the charisma of Modi and the ideology of Hindutva would be insufficient, the essence of the RSS idea has been ignored. The article clearly indicates that the BJP will fight both state and general elections, scheduled in the later part of 2023 and in the early part of 2024, respectively, on the Hindutva version of nationalism. What has the Prime Minister done in the name of inaugurating the new Parliament building? The Sengol is the symbol of the RSS’ version of nationalism. This nationalism thrives on the manipulated themes of medieval and ancient India. Authoritarianism is at the core of this nationalism.

The article argues that "neither the political parties nor the voters or social groups should be allowed to use the election process or outcomes to target national unity and integrity and give meddling license to the external powers in our internal affairs."

(The author is a senior journalist. He has experience of working with leading newspapers and electronic media including Deccan Herald, Sunday Guardian, Navbharat Times and Dainik Bhaskar. He writes on politics, society, environment and economy)