World leaders must unanimously agree on collaborative efforts to reduce emissions during COP 29

There must be unanimity to achieve a new climate finance goal and by 2025 all member countries must agree on an enhanced ambition and action plans

All eyes will be on the proceedings of the UN Climate Change Conference that is being hosted at Baku, Azerbaijan from November 11 to 22. It marks an occasion when world leaders to engage and come up with feasible action plans to reduce emissions, adapt to climate change and address loss and damages. This conference is significant as the current plans are insufficient to achieve the target of 1.5°C.

According to a study, cuts of 42 per cent are needed by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035 to get on track for 1.5°C. Any failure on this front will put the planet, people and economies in peril that can result in high debilitating impacts. Therefore it is imperative to deliver immediately in order to put the world on course for temperature increase of 2.6°C-3.1°C.

Technically it is still possible to get on a 1.5°C pathway given the alternative energy sources like solar, wind, biomass and electric vehicles that can enable speedier emissions cuts.

We are witnessing the most extreme heat and warming these days and their impact on nature, while green gas emissions continue to rise. According to World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which released its Greenhouse Gas bulletin (No 20) on 28th October 2024, 'Greenhouse Gas concentrations surge again to new record in 2023’. The report states that Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than any time experienced during human existence, rising by more than 10 per cent in just two decades.

The Greenhouse Gas Bulletin highlights about greenhouse gas concentrations than on emissions levels. According to the report, just under half of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere. Just over one quarter are absorbed by the ocean and just under 30 per cent by land eco systems. However there is considerable year to year variability in this because of naturally occurring phenomena like EL Nino and La Nina. During EL Nino years greenhouse gas levels tend to rise because drier vegetation and forest fires reduce the efficiency of land carbon sinks.

And that is where the vicious cycle props up and spells disaster. Natural climate change variability plays a big role in carbon.

The UN report cautions that in the near future, climate change can itself make the ecosystems to become larger sources of greenhouse gases. The wild fires what we see globally releases more carbon emissions into the atmosphere whereas the warmer ocean might absorb less CO2. Consequently, more CO2 could stay in the atmosphere to accelerate global warming. According to WMO Secretary General Ko Barrett, "These climate feedbacks are of critical concern to the society."

The globally averaged surface concentration of CO2 reached 420.0 parts per million (ppm) methane 1934 parts per million and nitrous oxide 336.9 parts per billion (ppb) in 2023. The report states that these values are 151 per cent, 265 per cent and 125 per cent of pre-industrial 1750 levels.

WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo said, "Another year and yet another record. This should set alarm bells ringing among all decision makers. It is worrying to note that we are clearly off track to meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and aiming for 1.5°C above pre industrial levels”.

He contends that these are more than just statistics. Every part per million and every fraction of a degree temperature increases real impact on lives and the planet.

It is a known fact that as long as emissions continue, greenhouse gas will continue accumulating in the atmosphere leading to rise in global temperature. It is also to be noted that given the extremely long life of CO2 in the atmosphere, the temperature level that has been observed will persist for several decades even if emissions are rapidly reduced to net zero.

We are already late in realising the gravity of climate change as some parts of the world are burning. Some parts are drowning and people are struggling to cope with such upheavals.

With COP 29 round the corner, it is appropriate to recall the key takeaways from COP 28 held at Dubai last year. COP 28 marked the conclusion of the first global stock-take of the world's efforts to address climate change under the Paris Agreement.

Noticing the progress was too slow across all areas of climate action - reducing greenhouse gas emissions, to strengthening resilience to changing climate, to getting the financial technological support to vulnerable nations - countries had agreed to accelerate action across all areas by 2030.

There was an agreement on operationalizing funding arrangements to address the loss and damage fund with initial commitments totalling more than $600 million. Parties also agreed on global goal targets on adaptation and it's framework which identify where the world needs to get to in order to be resilient to the impacts of changing climate and to assess countries 'efforts.

This years and the next year's COP conference at Brazil are very important in the light of the scale and urgency of climate challenges. There must be unanimity to achieve a new climate finance goal and by 2025 all member countries must agree on an enhanced ambition and action plans as per new nationally determined contributions, cover all Greenhouse gases and are fully aligned with the 1.5°C temperature limit.

We trust and hope that there will be more enhanced commitments on finance, adaptation and mitigation by all member countries and on a collective and collaborative way with government, private sector, civil society and all responsible people join in and strive to limit the temperature to 1.5°C and not only reduce the greenhouse gas emissions and transit away from fossil fuels and make and create more capacities of power supply by alternative energy sources and March towards net zero goal.

(The author is former Chairman & Managing Director of Indian Overseas Bank)