Resumption of intl flights after 2 years: Will flying become more expensive?

India will resume scheduled commercial flight operations to international destinations from March 27, restarting unrestricted travel after two years and for the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic began.

According to a Government statement, "after having recognized the increased vaccination coverage across the globe and in consultation with the stakeholders, the Government of India has decided to resume scheduled commercial international passenger services to/from India from 27.03.2022, i.e. start of Summer Schedule 2022. The suspension of scheduled commercial international passenger services to/from India, thus, stands extended only upto 2359 hrs IST on 26.03.2022 and air bubble arrangements shall accordingly be extended to this extent only."

The international operations shall be subject to strict adherence to the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare guidelines for international travel dated 10.02.2022 and as amended from time to time.

India currently allows airlines to operate a limited number of flights to countries with which it has a bilateral arrangement under an 'air bubble' agreement. This has limited airlines' operations and hurt their profitability.

While expensive 'air bubble' arrangements with 37 key destination countries ensured global connectivity during this period, regular flight resumption was awaited for two reasons - more connectivity/choices, leading to lower fares. The Ukraine conflict will, however, cast its shadow on these expectations.

Top travel industry officials say regular flight fares will definitely be much lower than exorbitant bubble charges but they are unlikely to be close to their pre-pandemic levels as crude is now close to the $140-mark and rupee has crashed below 77 mark to the US dollar. Jet fuel prices globally are at 14-year high.

Resumption of regular flights will mean people can again freely choose the most affordable connection, like a one-stop via nearby hubs abroad as they used to do pre Covid. The Gulf accounted for over a third of all travel to and from India due to high transit traffic on big airlines there. Or they can opt for nonstops that charge more for the convenience they offer.

Prices are likely to reach pre covid levels. After raising fares, cutting schedules is the next tool airlines have to turn to to counter high fuel prices. However, passenger capacity is already lower this year than it was in 2019 owing to the Covid-19 recovery, and a pilot shortage in the U.S. has added a further wrinkle to the recovery there. Additional schedule cuts could stymie the travel recovery that, up until the Russian invasion of Ukraine, was looking downright rosy for the summer.

UAE and Gulf Airlines have not increases fares as of now. Low-cost carrier Air Arabia has been hedging about 40 per cent of its fuel needs and that has helped the airline keep ticket prices competitive. Indian airlines have not increased their international airfares, and that could be due to competitive reasons.