It's Modi factor that will decide the Uttar Pradesh poll outcome

Will Prime Minister Narendra Modi deliver goods for Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly Polls 2022? This is a trillion-rupee question that is not only haunting India's Opposition parties, but also his own party. Gujarat-born Narendra Damodardas Modi, who led the BJP government in his home State for three consecutive terms as its Chief Minister, is the most popular politician in India now. There should not be an iota of doubt about it. But in Uttar Pradesh, the country's biggest State that sends 80 MPs to Lok Sabha, Modi has a cult following. That is what my travels across UP during the 2019 General Elections revealed.

Modi's popularity took roots in Uttar Pradesh in the run-up to the 2014 General Elections when he deployed his trusted lieutenant Amit Shah (now Union Home Minister) and BJP leadership employed a clever strategy that banked on the Gujarat model of development to rebuild the party in the key State. In that elections, BJP scored a stunning victory by winning 71 MP seats out of 80 and securing a popular vote share of 42.63 per cent on its own. That represented a seven-time jump in seat count for the saffron party from 10 in 2009. Modi's contest from Varanasi MP seat also helped the BJP's cause.

And BJP never looked back since then, scoring a grand electoral victory in the 2017 UP Assembly polls followed by a hat-trick of sorts in the 2019 General Elections when it won 62 MP seats. However, the victory in 2017 Assembly elections needs a special mention here. BJP went to the polls without a chief ministerial face. Still, it won with a massive majority thanks to Modi's charisma.

Of course, demonetisation also worked wonders for the party in that elections. On November 8, 2016, Modi took the nation by surprise by announcing the demonetisation of high-value currency notes of Rs500 and Rs1,000 denominations. Elections to the UP Assembly were held three months after the controversial move. And BJP walked away with 312 seats out of 403 Assembly seats in UP, a two-third majority.

To build and consolidate its base in UP, BJP seems to have adopted a three-pronged strategy. The first one, of course, is soft Hindutva which in my opinion is pro-Hindu plank. There is a huge difference between pro-Hindu stance and anti-Muslim plank. While BJP, as a political party, practices the former, its opponents try to paint it as an anti-Muslim, anti-minority party. Hindus are the majority in India and major chunk of the India's Hindu population doesn't find fault with BJP's pro-Hindu stance. Therein lies the reason for the BJP's phenomenal rise in the Indian politics. With the Ayodhya dispute comfortably resolved in favour of Ram Mandir and much-awaited phase-1 of Kashi Viswanath Corridor taking off in a grand way, BJP's image as a pro-Hindu party obviously got further entrenched in UP and across India in recent years. This will obviously bear more electoral fruits for BJP in near future.

The second key plank of its strategy is the development. There is a visible change for better in UP when it comes to roads and other infrastructure. Known for its backwardness, UP is also attracting private investments these days!

Thirdly, BJP also focused on welfare schemes and freebies. Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi under which the BJP government at the Centre has been offering up to Rs6,000 per year to every farmer, is one such initiative. It's pertinent to recall a conversation I had with a cab driver in Varanasi two years ago. He told me that no other government implemented the kind of welfare schemes that BJP'sState government led by Yogi Adityanath, launched in UP. The Yogi government's crackdown on criminal elements which ruled UP's political landscape for long time might come in handy for the saffron party in these elections. In another political masterstroke, the Narendra Modi government repealed three controversial farm laws weeks before the election process for five Assemblies including UP, took off. Farmers fought against these laws enacted by the Modi government, for over a year. These factors coupled with Modi's charisma have put BJP in advantageous position in this year's UP elections.

But it's not to say that BJP's victory is a foregone conclusion as it's too early to make a measured guess. Moreover, UP politics are complex in nature given the intricate caste compositions there. Also, political dynamics changed in the State in last five years.

In the 2017 UP Assembly elections, it was a three-way contest with BJP, Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP) and Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in fray. Congress had an alliance with SP then. But BSP seems to be in shambles. Congress, which is going alone this time, is still in dire straits in UP and the country's grand old party should blame itself for its sorry state of affairs in the India's biggest State. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, a Gandhi family scion, is sweating it out to bring back party's past glory. But her efforts may end in futility as Congress, like in many other States, has plenty of incompetent leaders and 'paper' tigers, but lacks a hard-working cadre base.

This leaves BJP and SP in the main fray. So, it's likely to be a two-way contest though Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM may prove to be a spoiler. Going by the way things are panning out now, SP's Akhilesh Yadav will obviously leave no stone unturned to turn tables on BJP in this election. He is more mature as a politician and has a better understanding of BJP's strategies. The recent exodus of backward leaders from BJP to SP is a clear indication of that. Of course, BJP paid him back in similar veinby luring the wife of his half-brother into its fold.

Anyway, it's going to be no-holds-barred electoral battle between BJP and SP. However, unlike in 2017, BJP, this time, has a chief ministerial face in Yogi Adityanath who led its government in the last five years. But he is not that popular with voters as anti-incumbency against his government has set in long back. Therefore, it's Modi factor and his popularity that will decide the outcome in the Uttar Pradesh polls. If BJP wins UP elections, it will be the Modi show all the way. Will Modi help BJP get fourth time lucky in UP? We will know on March 10.