How Will Stock Market React Post Trump’s Tariff Imposition? Know Key Details
Taking note of the bear case scenario, which takes likelihood of a policy shift into consideration under Trump’s administration, Axis Securities reiterated a Nifty target of 22,000 levels by December 2025.
How Will Stock Market React Post Trump’s Tariff Imposition? Know Key Details
Defying concerns surrounding US tariffs, Nifty was trading at 23,250-odd levels on April 2. Taking note of the bear case scenario, which takes the likelihood of a policy shift into consideration under Trump’s administration, Axis Securities reiterated a Nifty target of 22,000 levels by December 2025. In a bull market scenario, Nifty is estimated at 27,000 as the brokerage factor in a stable US economy.
Stocks of Prestige Estates Projects, Hero MotoCorp and HDFC Bank are among Axis Securities’ top picks for April. The stocks can give a return of 54%, the brokerage said.
India stands to lose $6 billion or 0.16% GDP in exports to the US at 10% broad tariffs. The loss can surge to $31 billion if tariffs are levied at 25%, Emkay Global estimated.
Keeping the bear market in mind, Axis Securities predicted that inflation can play a spoilsport for the developed world, including the US, while noting high levels of interest rates. “The direction of currency, oil prices, and development towards global trade is likely to put pressure on export-oriented growth in 2025. These developments will likely bring down the market multiple in the near term,” it said.
Taking the bull market into account, Axis Securities sees the starting of the rate cut cycle. The brokerage said the outlook for a soft landing has notably strengthened over the last one to two months.
“The market is keenly watching the global growth scenario in 2025 under Trump's presidency. Furthermore, private capex, which has been sluggish for the last several years, is expected to receive a much-needed boost in the upcoming years,” it said while expecting Nifty earnings to grow at 17-18 per cent over FY23-27. This would prove beneficial for capital inflows into emerging markets (EMs) and increase the market multiples in the domestic market, Axis Securities added.
In the base case scenario, Nifty is set to grow at 14% annually.
“However, trade policy uncertainty, rupee depreciation, and relatively higher valuations compared to other emerging markets, even after the correction, remain key risks to near-term market multiples. Based on these factors, we maintain our base case December 2025 Nifty target at 24,600 by valuing it at 19 times on December 2026 earnings,” Axis Securities said.
