Chennai Rains: Is a Third-Level Cyclone Threatening the City and Surrounding Districts?

The Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) has issued a third-level cyclone alert for seven Tamil Nadu ports: Chennai, Cuddalore, Nagapattinam, Ennore, Kattupalli, Puducherry, and Karaikal, as a low-pressure system over the central-western Bay of Bengal weakens into a depression. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts rain and strong winds on December 24 and 25, as the system moves west-southwest toward the southwest Bay of Bengal, near the coasts of northern Tamil Nadu and southern Andhra Pradesh.

Chennai is expected to experience light to moderate rainfall throughout the week, with a yellow alert issued for the city. However, the IMD's latest forecast does not predict heavy rainfall for the upcoming days.

In late November, Cyclone Fengal struck Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, causing significant damage. The cyclone, which occurred between November 29 and December 1, led to the loss of 12 lives and extensive agricultural destruction, impacting over 2 lakh hectares of farmland. Additionally, infrastructure damage was severe, with 1,649 km of electric conductors, 23,664 electric poles, 997 transformers, and over 9,500 km of roads affected. The cyclone's aftermath disrupted the lives of around 69 lakh families and 1.5 crore people.

In response to the disaster, Tamil Nadu's Chief Minister M. K. Stalin requested Rs 2,000 crore in interim relief from the National Disaster Response Fund, while the Central government approved Rs 944 crore for relief efforts. The initial damage assessment estimated losses at Rs 2,475 crore for relief and reconstruction.

Meanwhile, the ongoing northeast monsoon has brought above-average rainfall to Tamil Nadu, with the state recording 447 mm of rain, 14% higher than the usual 393 mm. Chennai saw 845 mm of rainfall, 16% above average, and Coimbatore experienced a 47% increase in rainfall. According to the Tamil Nadu Water Resources Department (WRD), several reservoirs across the state are near full capacity, with 12 reservoirs at 100% capacity, 18 exceeding 90%, and 23 between 70% and 80% full.