Increased US Oil Output May Impact Global Supply Dynamics

New Delhi: The Donald Trump presidency in the US could have a significant impact on the oil market, with potential growth largely dictated by price, according to a report on Monday. Additional US oil production means a well drilling cost requirement of $64 per barrel. Going forward, in a couple of years, these costs could scale up to the $67 and $70 range as per the forward prices, according to the report by Ventura Securities. The new US administration’s push for increased US oil production through aggressive drilling policies may lead to shifts in global supply dynamics.

Trade tensions, particularly tariffs, could introduce new uncertainties, affecting crude prices and US export competitiveness. “The geopolitical landscape, including Middle East tensions and sanctions on countries like Iran, could further influence oil prices. These factors together will play a crucial role in shaping the global oil market’s trajectory under Trump’s leadership,” the report mentioned.

There is a potential to see more US production on account of the approach and insistence on ‘more drilling’ and trade policies. “Trade uncertainty and frictions remain a headwind to crude prices, specifically when it comes to US energy prices. There are likely retaliatory effects against US exports due to US import trade tariffs,” the report noted.

In 2018, there was a significant fall in Iranian oil exports due to the re-imposing of sanctions against Iran. “If there is a resurgence of such sanctions, we could witness a potential loss of supply from the oil market, an upside price risk erasing surplus expectations,” the report said.

At present, sanctions have not been strictly enforced, and Iran has been able to increase exports significantly. The outcome of this would be pressure on OPEC+ to increase output. The current market prices stand at CMP WTI Crude at $70, Brent at $74, and MCX November Futures at Rs6,024. The Trump regime may also bring comfort to the oil industry by investing in pipeline infrastructure, thereby increasing crude oil output.