Will Mamata change her politics?

Political developments in the past few days have indicated some big changes in Indian politics in the offing. However, no excitement came from Parliament. The news from it was largely stale and commentators were repeating the old cry of washing out of the monsoon session. Obviously, they do this for the twin purposes of absolving the ruling party from its failure to ensure a conducive environment in the House for a meaningful dialogue between the treasury and opposition benches and ridiculing the opposition.

The media has almost overlooked the initial indication from the ruling party that it would not allow the opposition to criticize the government in words of their choice. The glossary of unparliamentary words was published for this purpose only. The suspension of MPs was the next step. Many may argue that it was the prerogative of the speaker. This would be a superficial observation. Is it not sad to see that opposition members hardly expect a fair deal from the speaker? Maybe their distrust is exaggerated. It needs to be removed.

The parliament failed to create excitement and the opposition members struggled to get their voices heard. The political weather in the country did not remain calm. There was significant turbulence with far-reaching consequences. The election of BJP's candidate Jagdeep Dhankhar to the post of vice-president was never in doubt. The politics it has initiated will affect national politics hugely.

The change in the stance of Mamata Benerjee reveals a turbulent scenario for future opposition politics. She had been displaying personal hostility to Dhankhar for a couple of years, especially during and after assembly elections. Dhankhar too was seen to be showing distaste for her behaviour as the chief minister. However, things changed very fast and that too, days before her minister, Partho Chatterjee, was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate.

She met Dhankhar, then governor of West Bengal, for tea at Rajbhavan in Darjeeling. Assam chief minister Himant Viswa Sarma was also present. In all probability, by the time they were meeting at Rajbhavan, the candidature of Dhankar had already been finalised. It is not difficult to speculate that her announcement of abstaining from the vote in the vice-presidential election only came after the meeting.

The explanation that the Opposition candidate Margret Alva was selected without her consultation was not at all convincing and it was contradicted by the Congress and other players who were involved in choosing Alva as the Vice-presidential candidate. The TMC's abstention from the vote contributed to the huge victory of Dhnakar by significantly reducing the opposition vote.

Mamata's politics requires close scrutiny because of the simple fact that her equations with Narendra Modi will affect the 2024 elections considerably. It is not to be forgotten that she had been in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and held a ministerial post in Atal Bihari Vajpayee's government. Moreover, she is a staunch enemy of the Left. Since it is almost certain that the Left and the Congress will unitedly fight Modi, she might not join them. She might play a similar role to that which she has played in the vice presidential election.

She has been instrumental in dismantling the opposition unity at crucial moments. She first chose Yashwant Sinha without pondering over the larger national politics and made a showdown on Congress and then pulled out from the campaigning after Draupadi Murmu appeared on the scene. The result was the Opposition's failure to send the message of unity.

Mamata's stand on the Partho Chatterjee case is also not in line with the narrative of the Opposition that the BJP is using the Enforcement Directorate for its political ends. The Trinamool Congress did not stand in support of Partho Chatterjee and expelled him from the post has only endorsed BJP's narrative that the ED is acting against corruption.

Mamata's visit to Delhi also says so many things. It has strengthened the apprehension that she is moving closer to the BJP. It has displayed a loss of charm in her posture of being anti-Modi. Known for avoiding meetings with Narendra Modi, she ensured that she should avail all opportunities to meet him. Details of her 45-minute long meeting with Modi in closed doors will never come out, anyone can guess the outcome. Many things have already changed. The soft language she has used in her letter to the Prime Minster to request the release of central funds is in contrast to her earlier harsh letters.

The time will only tell how she tunes the anti-BJP politics that has so far paid her hugely. It has brought huge support from the minorities that form a very big part of West Bengal's electorate. She outmaneuvered even the Left parties who had unblemished secular credentials. Her coming closer to BJP will move them away. The BJP leaders are demanding the implementation of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Bengal and if it is implemented it would be a nightmare for the Muslim population of the state. Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is also demanding a fresh NRC in his state. That will further complicate the issue. How will Mamata balance two opposing stances?

This is unlikely that she will abandon her support base among minorities. The BJP too will not want her to do it because it may cause a shift of minorities' vote to the CPIM and the Congress. Mamata could at best be posturing against the BJP and helping it indirectly.

That would not be easy and the BJP will not allow it to happen for long. The party is in a hurry to expand in states like Bihar and West Bengal. In Bihar, the party is even sabotaging the prospects of its longtime ally, the JDU. The pressure is likely to increase and Mamata will have hardly any other option than to fight or surrender. We have seen ruining of Mayawati's political career.

(The author is a senior journalist. He has experience of working with leading newspapers and electronic media including Deccan Herald, Sunday Guardian, Navbharat Times and Dainik Bhaskar. He writes on politics, society, environment and economy)