Will the Sensex dip further? Smart trading strategies for the week ahead

The Indian stock market ended last week on a sour note, snapping a two-week winning streak amid growing global trade tensions. A sharp sell-off followed after former U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs, rattling investor sentiment worldwide.

What Happened Last Week?

The benchmark indices took a hit, with the Sensex falling by 2,050 points (2.64%) and closing near 75,364. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 dropped 615 points (2.61%), ending the week at 22,904.40. The key drivers behind the fall were weak global cues, fears of a renewed trade war, and selling by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), who had briefly turned net buyers.

Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking Ltd., summed it up:

“After a week of consolidation, the markets fell sharply due to global concerns and trade war fears.”

Sectoral Impact

Most sectors saw red, with IT and metals losing the most—between 7% and 9%. On the other hand, FMCG, banking, and financial services held relatively steady, cushioning the blow slightly. Mid- and small-cap stocks also declined, shedding around 2% to 2.6%.

What to Watch Next Week

The upcoming week is loaded with domestic and global events that could move markets:

RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting outcome on April 9

Key macroeconomic data: IIP and CPI (April 11)

Start of Q4 earnings season: TCS reports on April 10

Vinod Nair of Geojit Financial Services noted that investor focus is shifting toward earnings. However, the outlook remains cautious due to sluggish demand and pressure on margins, which may lead to downward revisions in earnings estimates.

Technical Outlook: More Downside Ahead?

Technically, the Nifty has breached major support levels, hinting at more weakness. Mishra explained:

Immediate Nifty support lies at 22,600. A break below this could pull it down to 22,100.

On the upside, recovery may face strong resistance between 23,100–23,400.

Interestingly, Bank Nifty is showing relative strength:

Support: 50,700 (with stronger support at 50,000)

If it crosses 52,800, it could head toward fresh highs

This divergence could help cushion the broader market from a steep fall.

Trading Strategy for the Week

Mishra advises a “sell on rise” strategy until there’s a clear trend reversal or the index tests the 22,100 level.

“Stock-specific moves will likely dominate as the earnings season kicks off. Banking and financials remain strong and may continue to attract interest. However, traders should be cautious and consider hedging with index puts to manage volatility,” he said.

Final Word

With global uncertainty, volatile cues, and earnings on the horizon, the market could stay choppy. Staying agile and focusing on sectors showing relative strength will be key in navigating the week ahead.