Trade setup for Thursday: Will Nifty break beyond 24,350 on Expiry Day?

The markets remained range-bound for the third consecutive session, closing slightly higher and continuing the ongoing consolidation phase. After an initial rise, the Nifty traded within a narrow range throughout the first half of the session. A late surge in heavyweight stocks, including HDFC Bank and Adani Group, helped lift the index, which closed at a three-week high.

Key Market Highlights:

Among the top gainers, Adani Group stocks saw significant buying interest after clarifications about 'no FCPA' charges, with gains ranging between 4% and 20%.

Ola Electric Mobility shares hit the upper circuit following positive broker reports and new product launches.

NTPC Green Energy surged more than 12% following its modest stock market debut on November 27, hitting the 10% upper circuit during the morning session.

Energy indices outperformed, with a rally of over 1.5%, while selective pharma and realty stocks saw some profit booking at higher levels.

Market Sentiment: Sentiment was bolstered by easing geopolitical concerns, record highs on Wall Street, and the resumption of Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) inflows after two months of selling pressure. Additionally, optimism was fueled by US Federal Reserve minutes that indicated easing inflation and a resilient labor market, spurring expectations for gradual interest rate cuts.

Looking Ahead: Investors are awaiting key US economic data, including the second estimate of Q3 GDP growth, PCE inflation data, and initial jobless claims, which are expected to influence market direction. Thursday's session will also mark the weekly expiry of the Nifty 50, with all eyes on FPI data as November’s outflows have already crossed ₹29,841 crore. Despite the foreign investor exodus, both foreign and domestic institutions were net buyers in the cash market on Wednesday.

Nifty50 Technical Outlook: The Nifty50 continued its range-bound movement, closing the day higher by 80 points. The index tested the 24,350 levels but failed to break above them, consolidating towards the close. According to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities, the unfilled upside gap from November 5 suggests a bullish breakout, signaling the continuation of the uptrend. The immediate resistance lies at 24,400-24,500, with support at 24,150. Rupak De of LKP Securities notes that a decisive breakout above 24,420 could trigger a significant upward move, while support is at 24,100.

Bank Nifty Technical Outlook: The Nifty Bank witnessed profit booking after an initial gap-up opening, settling flat at 52,192 levels. HDFC Bank's strong performance is pivotal for the sector’s momentum. However, the Nifty Bank faces resistance at 52,500-52,580. A bearish belt hold pattern indicates weakness unless the index moves above 52,580, according to Hrishikesh Yedve of Asit C. Mehta Investment Intermediates.

Stocks to Watch:

Godrej Properties: Opens Qualified Institutions Placement (QIP) today, with a floor price of ₹2,727.44 per share.

HUDCO: Signs MoU with NBCC for the development of a 10-acre land parcel in Noida.

Natco Pharma: Sells 14.38 acres of land in Ranga Reddy District, Telangana, for ₹115.57 crore.

Ashoka Buildcon: Bags an order worth ₹192.69 crore from Madhya Pradesh Poorv Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Company.

As we approach the expiry day, all eyes are on the 24,350 congestion zone, and the potential for a breakout remains key to the Nifty’s direction in the short term.