Sensex, Nifty Week Ahead : FII inflows, US GDP data, and Key domestic numbers

The stock market wrapped up last week on a high note, posting its biggest weekly gains in four years. The Nifty 50 surged 4.26%, breaking past a three-week consolidation phase and closing at 23,350, its highest since February 2025. The Sensex also climbed 4.17%, settling at 76,906. Meanwhile, the broader markets outperformed, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices jumping 7.74% and 8.64%, respectively.

Experts believe this momentum will continue despite some volatility due to the monthly expiry of Futures & Options contracts. Key factors like macroeconomic data releases, foreign investor activity, and global economic developments will shape market trends. Here’s what to keep an eye on in the coming week:

1. US GDP Data

Investors will closely watch the final US GDP numbers for Q4 2024, set to be released on March 27. The last estimates suggested a 2.3% growth, down from 3.1% in Q3. The Federal Reserve has already indicated a slowdown, projecting 1.7% growth for 2025.

2. Global Economic Indicators

Apart from the US GDP, market participants will track manufacturing and services PMI flash data for March from key economies, along with the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting minutes and economic data from the UK.

3. Domestic Economic Data

India’s manufacturing and services PMI numbers for March will be released on March 24, with expectations of a slight increase from last month’s figures. Additionally, bank loan and deposit growth data and foreign exchange reserves will be out on March 28.

4. Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) Flow

FIIs made a strong comeback last week, buying Rs 5,819 crore worth of equities—their first weekly net buying since December 2024. If this trend continues, it could provide further support to the market. However, FIIs remain net sellers for the month at Rs 15,412 crore.

5. Oil Prices

Crude oil prices bounced back recently, rising to $72.16 per barrel amid supply concerns due to US sanctions on Iranian crude and OPEC+ production adjustments. Lower oil prices favor India, a major oil importer, and could positively impact inflation and corporate earnings.

6. IPO Activity

The mainboard IPO segment remains quiet, but the SME segment is active, with four IPOs launching next week. Desco Infratech, Shri Ahimsa Naturals, ATC Energies System, and Identixweb will collectively raise Rs 185 crore.

7. Technical Analysis

The Nifty 50 has turned bullish, closing above key moving averages and forming a strong weekly candle. The immediate resistance level is 23,500, while support is at 23,000. If Nifty crosses 23,800, it could strengthen the bullish trend.

8. Futures & Options (F&O) Trends

Options data suggests Nifty may trade between 23,000 and 24,000. The 24,000 strike has the highest call open interest, while 23,000 holds the maximum put open interest, indicating key support and resistance levels.

9. India VIX (Volatility Index)

India VIX, which measures market volatility, has been on a downward trend, dropping 5.31% last week to 12.58. As long as it stays below 14, market sentiment is expected to remain positive.

10. Corporate Actions

Several companies have scheduled dividend payouts, stock splits, and bonus issues in the coming week, which could impact stock-specific movements.

With strong foreign investor interest, declining inflation, and a positive economic outlook, the Indian stock market appears poised for further gains. However, traders should remain cautious amid global uncertainties and market fluctuations.