Sensex, Nifty may see up to 5% gap-up on Friday — D-Street readies for relief rally

Indian stock markets are poised for a strong start on Friday, April 11, tracking positive global cues following US President Donald Trump's surprise announcement of a 90-day suspension on new tariffs — with the exception of China. The move is being seen as a breather for global trade and could result in a 3–5% gap-up opening for key domestic indices like the Sensex and Nifty, according to market experts.

Gift Nifty Signals Strong Start

Futures on the NSE International Exchange, or Gift Nifty, jumped by nearly 750 points, reaching 23,238 on Thursday, indicating a buoyant mood ahead of Friday’s market opening — especially after a holiday-closed session on Thursday due to Mahavir Jayanti.

Global Sentiment Turns Positive

The pause on tariffs comes in the wake of a global market meltdown that wiped out trillions in investor wealth. However, relief spread quickly:

S&P 500 soared 9.5%

Nikkei 225 surged 9%

Asian and European markets followed with 5–6% rallies

The sudden shift has revived hopes of stability, lifting investor sentiment across the board.

India Likely to Benefit from US-China Tensions

"India is in a sweet spot," says Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities. "With China facing steeper tariffs of up to 125%, India stands to benefit in terms of trade diversion and improved bilateral ties with the US. We expect a strong start to the session with a 3–5% rally."

He adds that the pause gives India and the US more time to hammer out a multi-sectoral trade agreement. According to Tapse, Team Modi is working hard to secure better terms across trade, investment, and economic cooperation.

Volatility Remains in the Background

Despite Thursday’s optimism, Wednesday saw a different story.

Sensex fell 379.93 points to 73,847.15

Nifty dropped 136.70 points to 22,399.15

Broader indices like BSE Midcap and Smallcap also slipped by up to 1%

Volatility index India VIX surged 60% in a week, touching 21.43

Analysts warn that while Friday’s open could be celebratory, volatility remains high, driven by inflation concerns and central bank policy directions.

Sector Watch: Banking & Consumption in Focus

According to Trivesh, COO at Tradejini, “With easing global tensions, investors may shift focus to domestically driven sectors like banking, consumption, and infra. While it’s not time to throw caution to the wind, the tariff pause offers a chance to recalibrate portfolios.”

Improved Liquidity, Stronger Outlook

Himanshu Maradiya, Founder of CIFDAQ Group, emphasized that Trump’s move has reduced macroeconomic uncertainty, improving liquidity and risk sentiment globally. “Many see this as a green light for a broader market rebound,” he noted.

Beyond Equities: Dollar, Gold & Crypto React

The US Dollar weakened slightly against both safe-haven and risk-on currencies.

Gold prices extended gains, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Cryptocurrencies also rallied, riding the wave of improved risk appetite.

What’s Next for D-Street?

As Indian markets reopen Friday, April 11, all eyes will be on whether the global momentum can sustain through the day. Investors will also be digesting TCS’s Q4 earnings, RBI’s recent rate cut, and upcoming trade developments.

“It’s a tactical pause, not a full stop. Investors would do well to remain cautious, stay diversified, and look at sectors that were under pressure but have solid fundamentals,” says Justin Khoo, Senior Analyst – APAC at VT Markets.

Disclaimer: This news article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.