Nifty Technical Outlook: Short-term market structure remains on the positive side: Experts

The Nifty 50 started the week on a negative note, closing 0.4% lower on March 10. Despite a brief recovery to 22,677 earlier in the day, the index failed to maintain its momentum above the 22,500 mark, finishing at 22,460. This marks a bearish start to the week, but the bulls can still expect a potential uptrend as long as the index stays above the crucial support level of 22,250.

Nifty Technical Outlook: The Nifty 50 faced selling pressure in the final hours of trading, slipping into the red after initially rebounding to 22,677, a level coinciding with the 20-day EMA. The index ultimately closed near the lower end of the February 28 bearish gap, raising concerns. As long as the Nifty holds above the 22,250 support, there is potential for a move toward the 22,700–22,800 range. A decisive breach of this support could lead to a further decline toward the 22,060 mark (100-week EMA).

The formation of a bearish candlestick pattern, resembling a Shooting Star, signals potential weakness at higher levels. However, experts suggest that confirmation of this bearish trend will depend on how the market moves in the next sessions.

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, highlights that while a bearish candle on the daily charts suggests weakness, the overall short-term market structure remains on the positive side. For day traders, 22,500 is the key level to watch. If the market stays below this level, weak sentiment is expected to persist. Conversely, if Nifty crosses above 22,500, there could be a shift in sentiment, pushing the index toward 22,650–22,700.

Options Data and Range Outlook: The weekly options data shows that Nifty could trade within the 22,000–23,000 range in the short term, with an immediate range of 22,200–22,700. On the call side, maximum open interest is seen at the 23,000 strike, followed by 23,500 and 22,700. On the put side, the maximum open interest lies at the 22,000 strike, followed by 22,200 and 22,100. These levels will be critical in determining short-term market direction.

Bank Nifty: The Bank Nifty underperformed the Nifty, declining by 281 points to close at 48,217, continuing its losses for the second consecutive session. A small bearish candle with a long upper shadow was formed on the daily chart, signaling resistance at higher levels. However, the index remains above the strong support zone of 47,850–48,000.

Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments, suggests that the 47,850–48,100 zone presents buying opportunities if the index dips toward this range. The immediate target on the upside is 48,900, and traders should watch for price action around support levels to confirm a potential rebound.

India VIX: The India VIX, which gauges market volatility, rose 3.82% to 13.99, signaling heightened market caution. If the VIX continues to climb sharply, the bulls may face challenges in pushing the market higher.

Disclaimer: Users are advised to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.