Morgan Stanley forecasts 41% rise in Sensex, reaching 105,000 by December 2025
Morgan Stanley forecasts 41% rise in Sensex, reaching 105,000 by December 2025
Morgan Stanley has forecast a bullish outlook for India's Sensex, projecting a 41% surge to 105,000 by December 2025. This optimistic prediction comes amid global economic factors, inflation trends, and policy pivots playing crucial roles in shaping market direction. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns, analysts at Morgan Stanley remain confident in Indian equities.
In its report, Morgan Stanley suggests that market valuations are now at their most attractive levels since the pandemic, signaling a shift from macro-driven investments to selective stock-picking. The firm’s base case sees the Sensex climbing to 93,000, a 25% increase, while the worst-case scenario could bring the index down to 70,000, a 6% decline.
Ridham Desai, Head of India Research at Morgan Stanley, along with other analysts, believes that Indian markets are currently undervalued, providing opportunities for stock pickers. He also warned that global recession fears could challenge this forecast. The firm sees the Reserve Bank of India’s policy shift and a strong government budget as underappreciated by markets, further strengthening the case for growth.
Key sectors such as financials, consumer discretionary, industrials, and technology are expected to perform well, with top stock picks including Jubilant FoodWorks, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki India, Bajaj Finance, ICICI Bank, and Infosys. The firm anticipates a broad-based recovery in consumption, supported by tax cuts, a rebound in corporate capital expenditure (capex), and softening food inflation.
Morgan Stanley’s forecast highlights India as a promising growth market in the face of global uncertainty, with a focus on strategic stock selection and sectoral investments to capture future opportunities.
