Popularity of PM Narendra Modi is intact

The recently declared results of seven assembly seats which went to bypolls on November 3 drew a lot of attention from political pundits and media persons, who were in their usual form and spirit to dissect the outcome from every possible angle. For most of them the result was the revalidation of the fact that popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is intact.

Many of them were found to be sympathetic with the Congress for not winning even a single seat. In fact, India's grand old party surrendered two of its seats – Adampur in Haryana and Munugode in Telangana – to the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) respectively. Some of the experts were heard cautioning the BJP in the context of Bihar. By and large, the assembly by-poll outcome was seen as the continued resilience of Prime Minister Modi's political aura.

The voting for seven assembly by-polls - Adampur (Haryana), Andheri East (Maharashtra), Dhamnagar (Odisha), Gola Gokarnnath (Uttar Pradesh), Gopalganj and Mokama (both in Bihar), and Munugode (Telangana) – took place on November 3. The counting of votes took place on November 6. BJP won Adampur, Gola Gokarnnath, Gopalganj and Dhamnagar assembly seats.

In Telangana, the ruling TRS won Munugode by-poll after a close fight with the BJP. The RJD retained Mokama while in Maharashtra's Andheri East, Rutuja Latke, the candidate of Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena faction, won the by-poll. Though assembly by-poll results are not indicative of the popular mood at all, an honest and objective assessment certainly gives us some insights into emerging political permutations and combinations in the country.

Having done incredibly well in the last assembly polls in West Bengal and standing on a firmer footing in Bihar – Odisha is the only neighbouring state where the BJP would like to come to power by dethroning the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) led by Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, a unique politician in the country who is rarely in news or controversy.

BJP candidate Suryabanshi Suraj defeated the BJD's Abanti Das by an emphatic margin of 9881 votes in Dhamnagar assembly by-poll. The BJP retained the seat. Chief Minister Patnaik's reaction to the result was mature and calculated. It was in sync with his personality, political character and charisma. He is rarely seen joining issues even with his rivals if any. He is a silent worker. Since 2000, Patnaik has been Odisha Chief Minister.

Odisha under Patnaik has undergone a multidimensional socio-economic and political transformation. The state is no longer a laggard one. Braving constraints and optimising resources and opportunities, he has been able to put Odisha on the path of inclusive and sustainable growth. Though a lot still needs to be done to bridge socio-economic disparities in terms of distribution of opportunities, facilities and privileges among the people in proportion to their population, Chief Minister Patnaik should be lauded for his efforts.

Even on the economic front, he is going the extra mile to further consolidate the state's economic strength along with his firm fight against unemployment and poverty. The state's economy is fast improving. In October this year, the state collected Rs 3,769 crore as Goods and Services Tax (GST) as compared to Rs 3,593 crore in the last corresponding month, registering a growth rate of five per cent.

Unfortunate but economy and people's economic condition do not matter much in our political discourse. For nearly two decades, people of Odisha in general and the poor in particular have reposed their faith in Patnaik but he is wary of electoral threats from the BJP. The saffron party has an opportunity to make the lotus bloom in Odisha as the Congress is not working so hard at the grassroots level to regain its lost glory.

In the past many elections, the BJP played its social engineering card as well but in vain. Patnaik has consolidated his position among tribals and other poor people over the years who have found in him their saviour – good or bad – as they have none from their communities to lead and make them a political force to reckon with. It is a sad political vacuum but an opportunity for the BJP to cash in on.

In Bihar – Odisha's neighbouring State – a new political churning is going on. Out and out a political state, the land of Bihar is the laboratory of social justice politics in the country. The ruling Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) retained Mokama seat in the by-poll but could not wrest Gopalganj seat from the BJP which retained the seat but with a drastically reduced margin of votes.

Notwithstanding sympathy factor, split of Yadav and Muslim votes, BJP's Kusum Devi – wife of Subhash Singh whose death necessitated the by-poll – managed to retain the seat with a margin of less than two thousand votes. BJP strategists know well that in general elections there will not be the decisive split of votes, and Tejashwi Yadav and Nitish Kumar – both from powerful Yadav and Kurmi OBC (Other Backward Class) communities – pose a formidable challenge to them.

Vibrant and dynamic, Bihar is restless to emerge as one of the growth engines of the country. The Mandal politics broke the political hegemony of minority Hindu castes and established the supremacy of larger social groups comprising major castes – mostly Dalit and those who are socially and educationally backwards. It all started with the ascension of Lalu Prasad Yadav when he first became the Chief Minister of the state in 1990.

Nitish Kumar – who belongs to Kurmi caste, a minority OBC community – has been very particular about Bihar's multidimensional development. His deputy Tejashwi Yadav is also in alignment with Kumar and is striving hard to strike a balance between development and social justice, as he is well aware that development is neither lasting nor sustainable without equality and social justice.

Close to Bihar is Uttar Pradesh where the BJP retained Gola Gokarnnath seat. Unlike Bihar, the BJP in Uttar Pradesh has gone for a new political experiment. Instead of making an OBC leader as the Chief Minister of the state, the saffron party has reposed its faith in Yogi Adityanath, a Rajput leader originally from Uttarakhand.

Given the state's caste permutations and combinations, only a holistic alliance among the parties with a say among OBCs, SCs and STs can challenge the BJP in the State. In the last assembly poll, the Samajwadi Party led by former Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav fought the election fiercely.

The BSP and the Congress performed badly. The fight was between the BJP and the SP. Today, the SP is the second largest party after the BJP in UP both in terms of seats and percentage of votes polled in the last assembly election.

Haryana is emerging as a bright spot for the BJP though the Congress remains in reckoning. In the last eight years, Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar has positioned himself as the state's strongest leader as of today. The man who was brought in as a non-Jat political face has today made his inroads into all social groups. With a vibrant economy and a strong manufacturing-services sector, Chief Minister Khattar is no longer a lightweight leader of the BJP.

He seems to be poised for bigger roles. His key challenger in the state politics is former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda. He is a mass leader and fighter in his own fashion. Under his leadership, the Congress put up a good show in Adampur bypoll. As the things stand today, Haryana is bracing for a direct electoral fight between the BJP and the Congress. It remains to be seen how regional outfits – JJP, INLD and AAP – make the contest triangular.

The BJP is comfortably placed in Maharashtra. Eknath Shinde or Uddhav Thackeray – the party has always an equally good option to choose one of them as its ally depending upon the situation. The saffron party is quite euphoric about its prospects in Telangana, given the kind of vibrancy the party has smelt from its performance in Munugode assembly bypoll.

Certainly, a broad picture does not emerge from the result of one assembly seat but the BJP strategists have set their eyes on Telangana after consolidating itself in Karnataka. The Congress is also in the race to project itself as an alternative to the TRS. The results of recently held assembly by-polls offer some food for thought but not too much to be excited about!

(The writer is a senior journalist, columnist and author. The views expressed are strictly his personal)