Technical view: Bears poised to tighten grip if Nifty slips below 22,000; Bank Nifty hits new low

The Nifty 50 remained largely rangebound on March 3, erasing early gains and closing with a slight negative bias. Market sentiment continues to favor the bears, with every rebound facing selling pressure, according to experts. The index hovers around a crucial support level of 22,000, which aligns with the 100-day EMA. A decisive close below this mark could trigger a further decline towards 21,800. Meanwhile, resistance is expected near 22,300.

After opening higher at 22,195, the Nifty briefly touched 22,262 in early trade but struggled to hold onto gains. It slipped to 22,005 in late morning trading before staging a modest recovery of over 100 points, ultimately closing at 22,119, down 5.4 points.

The daily chart reflected a bearish candlestick pattern with both upper and lower shadows, signaling volatility and an attempted recovery near 22,000. According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the overall trend remains negative despite the minor bounce. He noted that any further downside below 22,000 could find support between 21,800 and 21,700, while a breakout above 22,500 may indicate a short-term reversal.

Options Data and Market Range

Weekly options data suggest that the Nifty could trade between 21,800 and 22,500 in the short term. On the Call side, the highest open interest was seen at the 23,000 strike, followed by 22,500 and 22,400 strikes, with significant Call writing at 22,400 and 23,000 levels. On the Put side, the 22,000 strike held the maximum open interest, followed by 21,900 and 21,800 strikes, with notable Put writing at 21,900 and 22,000.

Bank Nifty Under Pressure

The Bank Nifty underperformed the broader market, slipping below its January low and marking a fresh 2025 low at 47,841.30. After recovering 273 points from its intraday low, it ended at 48,114, down 230 points. The index formed a bearish candlestick pattern on the daily chart, accompanied by above-average volumes.

"The Bank Nifty took support at the lower Bollinger Band on the daily timeframe, indicating oversold conditions, which could lead to a short-term relief rally," said Jigar Patel, Senior Manager - Equity Research at Anand Rathi. He identified 48,600 as immediate resistance and 47,800 as a crucial support zone.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, a key volatility indicator, dipped 1.06% to 13.76, staying below the 14 mark—a level generally considered favorable for bullish sentiment.

Disclaimer: The views and investment advice shared in this article are those of market experts and not of Moneycontrol. Investors are advised to consult certified professionals before making investment decisions.