Nifty Trade Setup March 17: Focus on Fed’s comments and FII trends for market direction.

As Indian markets gear up for the new trading week, investors are hoping for a rebound after a mixed performance last week. The Nifty 50 index struggled to hold its gains on Thursday, closing below the 22,400 mark despite a positive opening. Volatility, largely influenced by the weekly expiry of Nifty 50 options contracts, kept traders on edge throughout the session.

Key Market Trends

The Nifty slipped back into negative territory last week, losing nearly 1% overall.

Nifty Bank, however, showed resilience, defending the 47,840 level and closing above 48,000.

Sun Pharma emerged as the top gainer, climbing nearly 5%, followed by ICICI Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank, which gained 3% each.

IndusInd Bank had a rough week, plummeting 28% due to a significant single-day decline on Tuesday.

IT stocks struggled, with Wipro down 7%, Infosys declining 6%, and Tech Mahindra dropping 3.5%.

US Federal Reserve’s Policy Meeting in Focus

All eyes are now on the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy review scheduled for March 19. While recent inflation data suggests a favorable trend, uncertainty remains over a potential interest rate cut due to ongoing trade tensions. The Fed’s commentary will play a crucial role in setting the market’s direction.

Technical Levels to Watch for Nifty 50

The Nifty has been moving within the 22,350–22,550 range for the past three days.

A decisive move above 22,550 could trigger a short-term rally, potentially pushing the index toward 23,000.

A break below 22,350 may weaken sentiment, with key support at 22,000.

Analysts suggest that a breakout from the 22,250–22,650 range is expected soon.

Nifty Bank Outlook

The index ended flat at 48,060.40, unable to sustain above the 48,350 resistance level.

On a weekly basis, it recorded a 0.90% decline.

A strong uptrend is expected only above 48,600, while immediate support remains at 47,800 and 47,600.

Stocks to Watch on Monday

IndusInd Bank: Well-capitalized with a Capital Adequacy Ratio of 16.46% and a Provision Coverage Ratio of 70.20%.

Tata Motors: Board meeting on March 19 to consider a ₹2,000 crore fundraising proposal.

Ola Electric: Facing legal trouble over a ₹18-20 crore payment default.

SpiceJet: Chairman Ajay Singh sold a 0.89% stake, worth ₹52 crore, via block deals.

Vishal Mega Mart: Shareholder lock-in period ends on March 17.

Shilpa Medicare: Cleared US FDA inspection with zero observations.

KEC International: Secured new orders worth ₹1,267 crore.

TCS: Appointed Sudeep Kunnumal as Chief Human Resources Officer Designate.

Dalmia Bharat: Expanded cement production capacity in Assam.

Brigade Enterprises: Launched a 2 million sq. ft. residential project in Bengaluru.

Looking Ahead

Market sentiment will also depend on Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) activity, as selling pressure from foreign investors has intensified. Additionally, the upcoming IPO of Aris Infra, a tech-driven construction materials procurement platform, set to open on March 20, could influence investor sentiment.

As traders brace for a new week, technical indicators suggest a breakout is imminent. Whether the Nifty moves toward 23,000 or slips below 22,300 depends largely on global cues and domestic institutional participation. Keep an eye on the Fed’s commentary and FII trends for a clearer market direction.