Market Outlook for February 21: Nifty remains rangebound; a breakout above 23,100 could bring some relief

The Indian stock market is wrapping up a rather dull week, with Nifty moving within a narrow 300-point range. Bulls have fought hard to hold the 22,800 level, but there's little confidence to sustain gains beyond 23,000.

Broader Markets Outperform

Despite Nifty’s lackluster movement, the broader markets have shown resilience. The Midcap and Smallcap indices have consistently outperformed the benchmark indices, recovering well from recent sell-offs.

Key Stock Movers on February 20

Company Price (₹) Change (₹) % Change

Shriram Finance 580.85 +23.05 4.13%

NTPC 325.15 +10.35 3.29%

Mahindra & Mahindra 2839.45 +82.05 2.98%

Bharat Electronics 260.25 +6.85 2.70%

Adani Ports & SEZ 1111.70 +28.85 2.66%

A Week of Minimal Movement

Thursday’s trading session mirrored the rest of the week—volatility was missing even on the usual choppy weekly options expiry day. Nifty briefly dipped at the opening but was quickly bought into, only to drift aimlessly afterward.

In four out of the last five trading sessions, the index moved less than 0.1% by the closing bell. However, it has ended in the red in 11 of the last 12 sessions. Factors like concerns over Trump’s trade tariffs, stress in the auto sector, and foreign fund outflows to China have kept bulls on the sidelines.

What’s Next for Nifty?

Market expert Saion Mukherjee of Nomura sees Nifty fluctuating between 21,800 (downside) and 25,700 (upside) by year-end, indicating a 12% potential rise from current levels.

Meanwhile, FMCG stocks have struggled post-Budget, with the sector witnessing its worst losing streak ever—14 straight sessions in the red, erasing ₹3 lakh crore in market value.

Technical View: Key Levels to Watch

Support: 22,800

Immediate Resistance: 23,150

Breakout Zone: 23,200–23,400

Experts suggest that a sustained move above 23,100 could indicate a short-term reversal, pushing Nifty higher. Until then, a cautious approach is advised.

Bank Nifty: Struggling to Gain Momentum

After Wednesday’s short-lived rally, Bank Nifty lost half its gains on Thursday. However, the index remains 0.5% higher for the week and is set for its third weekly gain in four weeks.

Key Resistance: 50,000 (strong call writing at this level)

Support Levels: 48,600 & 49,650

Traders are advised to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy while keeping an eye on these crucial levels.

Bottom Line

With no major positive triggers, Nifty remains rangebound. A breakout above 23,100 could bring some relief, but global uncertainties continue to weigh on sentiment. Broader markets, however, remain a bright spot, showing steady recovery.