Nifty may remain positive above 18,037 level

With a last-hour rally, the benchmark indices closed positively. The NSE Nifty ended at 18,117.15 with 64.45 points or 0.36 per cent. The sudden sharp rally was led by the banks recovery. The Bank Nifty recovered over 250 points in the last hour. Nifty metal is the top gainer with 4.21 per cent. The media shares gained 1.07 per cent. Nifty Pharma declined by over 1.02 per cent is the top loser. The remaining sectoral indices closed flat with marginal gains or losses. The market breadth is positive as 1,075 advances and 822 declines. About 70 stocks hit a new 52-week high and 97 stocks traded in the upper circuit. Adani Enterprises, Vedanta, and SBI were the top trading counters on Friday in terms of value.

The Nifty registered a breakout by closing above 18,115 on a weekly basis. After an oscillation for two days, finally, it cleared the prior highs. The 5EMA has been acting as strong support for the last 14 days. Even though there is no weakness in the market, there are some concerns. The marginal breakout with a lower volume is the first concern. The negative divergence developed in the RSI. There are very few sectors in the leading quadrant. With Friday's over four per cent rally, the metals are in the leading quadrant. The PSU banks are strong. The market breadth is neutral for the last week. As the VIX is at the lowest level, expect a sharp and impulse move on the price; the high probability is on the downside. For now, the market is resilient to fall and insulated from global weakness. Micro and Macroeconomic concerns are looming worldwide and across global markets.

Technically, there is no weakness in the market. As long as the Nifty trades above the 5EMA (18,037), be with a positive bias. Another weekly positive close will open the target to a new high. For a strong bearish reversal, the Nifty has to close below 17,900 decisively. Until then, there is no point in thinking of a bearish trend.