Nifty Hovering In Non-Directional Mode

The NAV management is perfectly done as the financial year end approaches and the monthly expiry. The Nifty gained by 105.10 points or 0.45 per cent and closed at 23,591.95 points. Nifty PSU Bank is the top gainer with 2.50 per cent. The Nifty Junior and Media indices gained over 1.50 per cent. The Energy, Oil and Gas, Realty, PSE, CPSE, Smallcap, and Commodities indices are up by over one per cent. The Nifty Auto is the top loser with 1.26 per cent. The Pharma and Healthcare declined by less than half a per cent. The India VIX down by 1.26 per cent. The market is negative as 1,537 declines and 1,382 advances. About 325 stocks hit a new 52-week low, 198 stock traded in the lower circuit. Zomato, JioFin, HDFC Bank, Britannia, and BSE were the top trading counters in terms of value.

On a monthly expiry day, the index closed positive after a negative opening. It bounced 206 points in the first hour and then lost momentum. It traded in sideways after the first hour’s euphoric move. The index has formed a lower high and lower low candle and hasn’t provided any directional bias. The hourly RSI is still in the neutral zone. The massive volume in the last indicates a serious distribution after the expiry trade adjustments. The Nifty opened at the 23.6 per cent retracement level. This 23420 will be a crucial support for the short-term. If it closes below this level, expect to test the 23140. On the upside, the index must close above the prior day’s high to resume the upside move.

The Rollovers were just 66.02 per cent, which is an indication that the traders are not confident of the trend to continue. During the previous two months, the rollovers were at 81 per cent and 78 per cent. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) for next month’s expiry is at 1.31, which is an indication that the market is at a swing high.

As the long weekend is in place, Monday is a holiday for Ramzan, so expect a serious profit booking. At the same time, April 2nd is going to be an event risk, as the Trump administration is going to impose new tariffs on various imports. We need to wait and watch for the market’s reaction.

(The author is partner, Wealocity Analytics, Sebi-registered research analyst, chief mentor, Indus School of Technical Analysis, financial journalist, technical analyst and trainer)