Nifty at 19,500, Sensex at 64,500 by Dec 2023
Mostly banks, auto OEMs and ancillaries, oil & gas, and IT cos expected to lead Nifty-50 profit after tax (PAT) in CY23, while dollar index fluctuation, amplitude of a possible global slowdown/recession, and the timing of the Fed's pivot remain key factors: Emkay Global
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- Further rate hike by US Fed and RBI likely
- RBI may go on a long pause by 2QCY23
- Sudden crude oil price rise a challenge next 6-12 mths
- A capex intensive budget may spur investment
- However, global and domestic growth uncertainties may act as an impediment
Chennai: NSE Nifty is to attain a level of 19,500 by the end of 2023 and BSE Sensex at 64,500, forecasts Emkay Global Financial Services given the current situation.
"Barring any major change in the global macro-economic and geo-political set-up Sensex at 64,500 indicating a 7-8 per cent increase from the current levels," the company said.
Largely, the increase in Nifty-50 profit after tax (PAT) in CY23 will be led by banks, auto OEMs and ancillaries, oil & gas, and the IT companies, the company added.
While the movement of the dollar index, the depth and amplitude of a possible global slowdown/recession, and the timing of the Fed's pivot remain key factors that may impact markets. Back home, the RBI seems to not be too restrictive, and will probably be following the Fed's moves. The period for which it stays on pause and eventually starts cutting rates will be keenly watched by the market participants, Emkay Global said.
According to Nirav Sheth, CEO (institutional equities), Emkay Global, the movement of the dollar index continues to be a cause of concern due to the sheer impact it has on multiple things.
"We expect a further installment of rate hike by the US Fed and the RBI thereby strengthening the respective currencies. We expect RBI to go on a long pause by 2QCY23," Sheth said.
The higher-for-longer interest rates, and a sudden rise in Brent crude oil prices are potential challenges for the market in the next 6-12 months, said Sanjay Chawla, head (institutional research), Emkay Global.
"A capex intensive budget by the government may spur investment. However, global and domestic growth uncertainties may act as an impediment. Given the current scenario we see Nifty-50 fair value of around 19,500 by end CY23; we expect aggregate profit growth of Nifty-50 to be fairly resilient at around 15 per cent in CY23," Chawla said.
