Fresh buying opportunity above 15,895-15,903 level
The Nifty witnessed some of the decent pullbacks from the lower levels and has shown inherent strength. And, every pullback short-lived, the suspicions about the up moves are increasing
image for illustrative purpose
The NSE Nifty witnessed higher intraday ranges during the last five trading sessions. During the last week, it traded in the 445-point range. Finally, it gained just 99.05 points or 0.6 per cent and settled at 15,790.15 points. After a series of volatile move, the gain of 103.50 on the last monthly expiry has given the net gain on a weekly basis. The IT sector index has driven rally on Thursday, which was up by 2.79 per cent. The Bank Nifty advanced by 0.73 per cent, and the Fin Nifty is gained by 0.55 per cent. The PSU Bank index is down by 1.4 per cent, and the Media index is a decline by 1.14 per cent. All the other indices either moved higher or lower by less than 0.5 per cent. The market breadth is negative as 1,138 declines and 771 advances. As many as 154 stocks hit the new 52 weeks high, and 125 stocks are in the lower band.
There are two massive bars of bullish and bearish moves in the last five sessions. An attempt to make a new lifetime high has missed in just six points. The Nifty has formed an inside bar on the monthly expiry day. Even on the weekly time frame, the index has traded within the last week's range. The Nifty needs to move above the 15,863 points for a bullish continuation move. In any case, it fails to move upside and declines below the 15,673 points is a bearish confirmation for an inside bar.
On a weekly basis, a close below 15450-431 zone support is a big negative for the index. The Nifty witnessed some of the decent pullbacks from the lower levels and has shown inherent strength.
And, every pullback short-lived, the suspicions about the up moves are increasing. For the last four weeks, the Nifty traded in 450 points range. Some of the volatile intraday moves hit the stop losses on both sides. As the VIX is at the lower levels, short-term trading has become unfavourable. Only a decisive close above 15,895-15,903 can give a fresh buying opportunity. As mentioned above, a move below 15,673 level is negative. Avoid trading between this zone.
(The author is financial journalist, technical analyst, family fund manager)
