Dalal Street: Key factors to watch; Will volatility ease post-trump victory?

In the upcoming truncated week, Dalal Street is poised for further consolidation, with market movements driven by global factors and lackluster quarterly results.

Market Overview

The Nifty50 lost its previous gains, closing lower for the week ending November 8 due to subdued corporate earnings, persistent selling by FIIs, and high valuations. China's $839 billion refinancing plan for local government debt also fell short of market expectations, failing to boost global sentiment. However, market volatility eased after Donald Trump's election victory and a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Key Indices Performance

Sensex: Down 0.3% to 79,486

Nifty50: Down 0.64% to 24,148

Nifty Midcap 100: Down 0.25%

Nifty Smallcap 100: Down 1.86%

Tech stocks saw strong buying interest, helping to limit overall market losses.

Expert Opinions

Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, expects Indian equities to remain sideways, influenced by global factors and weak quarterly results.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, believes Trumponomics and FII actions will heavily influence the markets, with the US expected to outperform in the short to medium term.

Upcoming Key Events

Corporate Earnings:

Over 2,500 companies will announce their Q2 results, including major firms like ONGC, Britannia, Hindalco, and Hero MotoCorp.

CPI Inflation:

CPI and WPI inflation data for October will be released on November 12 and 14. Economists expect a slight increase from September's figures of 5.49% and 1.84%.

Industrial Output:

September's industrial output data, expected on November 12, may show improvement from the 0.14% contraction in August.

US Inflation:

October’s US inflation and retail sales data will be crucial, with consumer inflation possibly rising from 2.4% in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on November 15 will also be closely watched.

Global Economic Data:

Euro zone Q3 GDP estimates, UK and Japan's Q3 GDP figures, and China's October economic indicators, including retail sales and industrial production, will be released.

FII Flows:

Continued FII selling has impacted market sentiment. FIIs have sold Rs 1.45 lakh crore worth of shares since September 27, while DIIs have bought Rs 1.35 lakh crore in the same period.

Oil Prices:

Brent crude futures rebounded to end the week at $73.87 a barrel. Stable oil prices remain favorable for India, a net oil importer.

IPO Activity:

Multiple IPOs are scheduled, including Zinka Logistics Solutions' Rs 1,115-crore IPO and Niva Bupa Health Insurance's Rs 2,200-crore IPO.

Technical View:

The market is expected to remain consolidative, with the Nifty50 below its 10 and 20-week EMAs. Key support levels are 24,000 and 23,800, while resistance is seen at 24,500.

F&O Cues:

Weekly options data suggest Nifty may face resistance at 24,500 and find support at 23,500. The India VIX fell to 14.47, indicating reduced but still significant volatility.

Corporate Actions

Key corporate actions to watch include dividend announcements and board meetings for various companies.