Counter-trend may continue for another 2-3 days

The market recovered smartly from the day low and closed at near day high. NSE Nifty closed at 15835.35 with 83.30 points or a 0.53 per cent gain. The FMCG stocks led the market rally on Monday.

This sector gained by 2.66 per cent. The Bank Nifty ended with 1.2 per cent gain and FinNifty with 0.93 per cent gain. The Nifty Next 50 also gained by 1.01 per cent. Media, Infra, and Realty indices ended with half a per cent gains. The Nifty Metal and IT Indices are down by 0.99 per cent and 0.62 per cent, respectively.

The VIX is down by 1.31. per cent. The market breadth is positive as1304 advances and 794 declines. About 32 stocks hit a new 52-week high, and 102 stocks traded in the upper circuit. Reliance, ITC, and ONGC were the top trading counters today in terms of value.

The Nifty closed above the 20DMA and prior day high. Finally, the RSI broke the 47 zone and decisively closed above the sloping trend line. Friday's recovery from the lower level gave an early signal. On Monday, during the first hour and the last hour, the Nifty has formed the bearish candles, Shooting Stars.

The index faced resistance at the sloping trend line. The price pattern on a lower timeframe looks like a bullish Flag. For breakout, the index has to close above Monday's high of 15852. As mentioned earlier, the resistances are placed at 15987 and 16178. At the same time, the index has to sustain above the gap area for a bullish reversal.

A close below 15660 is negative for the index and will resume the downtrend. The market is in a counter-trend and will continue for another 2-3 days. The prior consolidation was three weeks old. The current consolidation entered the third week. The RSI may test 55 zone in this counter-trend. Select stock-specific activity and sector rotations will happen in this counter-trend. Be cautiously optimistic for now.