WTC Final Scenarios: India needs a 4-0 win against Australia to qualify

New Zealand players celebrate their historic win against India in the 3rd Test, Mumbai, November 3, 2024. New Zealand's 3-0 sweep over India has severely impacted India's chances of reaching the WTC final. • AFP/Getty Images

With 18 Tests remaining in the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, five teams are still in contention for the final, but none have guaranteed a spot in the top two. Here's how the teams stand:

Matches Remaining: Australia (five away)

Three unexpected losses to New Zealand have put India in a precarious position. To secure a spot in the WTC final at Lord's next June without depending on other teams, India needs to beat Australia 4-0. This would bring their points percentage to 65.79%, just ahead of New Zealand's potential maximum of 64.29% if they win all three Tests against England at home.

In an optimal scenario for India, they will end at least second on the points table, only behind South Africa, who can achieve a maximum of 69.44% by winning their remaining home series against Sri Lanka and Pakistan. However, India's fate may also hinge on other series results, potentially qualifying with fewer wins if other teams falter.

If the following outcomes occur:

India loses to Australia 2-3

New Zealand and England draw 1-1

South Africa draws 1-1 in both their remaining series

Australia draws 0-0 in Sri Lanka

Then, Australia would finish on top with 58.77%, and India’s 53.51% would secure the second spot, ahead of South Africa (52.78%), New Zealand (52.38%), and Sri Lanka (51.28%). Thus, India might still make it with fewer than four wins if other results favor them.

New Zealand

Percentage: 54.55%

Matches Remaining: England (three home)

New Zealand’s series win in India has kept their WTC final hopes alive. Winning all three home Tests against England would bring them to 64.29%, likely keeping them in contention. A single loss would drop their percentage to 57.14%, which might still suffice, depending on other results.

South Africa

Percentage: 54.17%

Series Remaining: Sri Lanka (two home) and Pakistan (two home)

If South Africa wins all four remaining Tests, they will end with 69.44%, almost ensuring a spot in the final. Three wins and a draw would leave them at 63.89%, and even with one defeat, their percentage would be 61.11%, keeping them in the running if other results align.

Australia

Percentage: 62.50%

Series Remaining: India (five home) and Sri Lanka (two away)

India’s defeats against New Zealand have bolstered Australia’s chances. Winning the series 3-2 against India would keep Australia ahead of India even with two losses in Sri Lanka. To ensure qualification independently, Australia needs five wins from their remaining seven matches.

Sri Lanka

Percentage: 55.56%

Series Remaining: South Africa (two away) and Australia (two home)

Sri Lanka's recent victories have strengthened their position. Winning all four remaining Tests would bring them to 69.23%, guaranteeing a final spot. Three wins and a loss would still leave them with a chance, depending on other results.

England

Percentage: 40.79%

Matches Remaining: New Zealand (three away)

Two defeats in Pakistan have diminished England’s chances. Even a 3-0 win against New Zealand would only bring them to 48.86%, insufficient for a final spot.

Pakistan

Percentage: 33.33%

Series Remaining: South Africa (two away) and West Indies (two home)

Pakistan’s revival at home is too late. Winning all remaining Tests would bring them to 52.38%. They would need several favorable results elsewhere to qualify.

Bangladesh

Percentage: 27.50%

Matches Remaining: West Indies (two away)

Four consecutive losses have severely hurt Bangladesh's chances. Even winning their last two Tests would only improve their percentage to 39.58%, far from the top two.

West Indies

Percentage: 18.52%

Series Remaining: Bangladesh (two home) and Pakistan (two away)

West Indies have a slim chance with only 20 points out of 108 so far. Winning their last four Tests would bring them to 43.59%.

S Rajesh is the stats editor of ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats

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