Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict escalates: How India is preparing for potential fallout

As tensions rise between Pakistan and Afghanistan, the prospect of war looms large, threatening stability in Southeast Asia and Eurasia. The conflict has intensified following Pakistan's cross-border airstrikes in Afghanistan, with the Taliban vowing to retaliate.

India’s Vigilance and Strategic Moves

New Delhi is closely monitoring the situation, aware that a war between its volatile neighbors could have severe repercussions, including a refugee crisis and increased terrorism. Reports suggest that Kabul might seek to strengthen ties with India, distancing itself from Pakistan due to recent military actions.

Over the past year, India has engaged in several dialogues with the Taliban, a move that has frustrated Pakistan. Notably, India has allowed a Taliban representative to operate from the Afghan consulate in Mumbai, with assurances from Kabul that Afghan soil will not be used for anti-India activities.

In November, Taliban Defense Minister Mullah Yaqoob met with a senior Indian foreign ministry official, assuring that Afghanistan would not support terror-related activities against India. This meeting signifies Kabul's interest in a diplomatic partnership with New Delhi.

Pakistan’s Recent Airstrikes

Earlier this week, Pakistan conducted airstrikes in Afghanistan’s Paktika province, targeting the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The strikes, which occurred on December 24, resulted in at least 46 deaths and several injuries. While Pakistan claims the strikes targeted TTP militants, the Taliban's Ministry of Defence contends that the attack also hit Waziristani refugees.

The Taliban has strongly condemned the airstrikes, summoning the Pakistani Embassy's Charge d’Affaires in Kabul. The Afghan Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a stern protest, asserting that the airstrikes violated Afghanistan's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Rising Tensions and Potential Consequences

The conflict between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban has been simmering, exacerbated by the presence of TTP militants in Afghanistan. Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of harboring these militants, a claim the Taliban denies.

This escalation could lead to broader regional instability, with potential impacts on India. As the situation unfolds, New Delhi remains vigilant, prepared to respond to any fallout from the conflict.