Newly discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 may hit Earth in 2032: Are we going to die?

A newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, has raised concerns as it has a small but noteworthy chance of impacting Earth in 2032. Discovered in December by a telescope in Chile, this asteroid is about the size of a football field, measuring between 40 and 100 meters in diameter. Experts at NASA have stated that while the asteroid does pose a 1% risk of collision, there is a 99% chance it will miss our planet.

Paul Chodas, the director of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, reassured the public by emphasizing, "We are not worried at all, because of the 99 percent chance it will miss… But it deserves attention."

What is 2024 YR4?

The asteroid 2024 YR4 came closest to Earth on Christmas Day, passing within 800,000 kilometers—about twice the distance from the Earth to the Moon. Astronomers are working hard to track its exact path and size before it fades from view, which will occur by mid-April 2025. The brightness of the asteroid is being monitored to determine its size, though measuring such objects is challenging, as their reflectivity affects how bright they appear.

Could 2024 YR4 Cause Major Damage?

While the asteroid is large, it is not nearly as massive as the one that caused the extinction of the dinosaurs around 66 million years ago. If 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth, it could cause significant localized damage. NASA’s Torino Scale, which assesses the potential for destruction, currently rates the 2024 YR4 as a 3 out of 10. For comparison, the asteroid that exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013 (half the size of 2024 YR4) released 30 times more energy than the Hiroshima atomic bomb and caused widespread damage. If 2024 YR4 were to strike Earth, it could release 8 to 10 megatons of energy.

How Often Do Asteroids Collide with Earth?

While thousands of small asteroids enter Earth’s atmosphere daily, most burn up due to atmospheric friction and do not cause significant harm. Larger asteroids, capable of causing global catastrophes, are much rarer. The Chicxulub asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs was over a kilometer wide and is estimated to have struck Earth about 260 million years ago.

Smaller asteroids like 2024 YR4 can still cause severe damage. The impact of a 40-meter asteroid could potentially destroy an entire city, depending on its speed and angle of entry into Earth’s atmosphere.

How Are Space Agencies Addressing the Threat?

NASA and other space agencies are actively developing planetary defense systems to prevent potential asteroid collisions. One such initiative is the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), which successfully altered the trajectory of an asteroid named Dimorphos in 2022 by crashing a spacecraft into it. While Dimorphos posed no threat to Earth, this mission demonstrated the feasibility of redirecting asteroids if needed in the future.

In summary, while the 2024 YR4 asteroid may seem concerning due to its size and potential impact, current data suggests it’s more likely to miss Earth than collide with it. Nevertheless, space agencies are continuing their work on planetary defense to prevent any future catastrophic events.