Asteroid 2024 YR4 Risk: Here's What Scientists Predict About NASA Asteroid Hitting Earth
NASA Asteroid: The probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth on December 22, 2032, has been reduced to 0.28%. There is evidence that it may collide with the Moon instead.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 Risk
Since being discovered in December 2024, the asteroid known as 2024 YR4 continues to grab the spotlight in 2025 as well.
Earlier this week, scientists revealed that the chances of an asteroid reaching Earth exceeded the 1% barrier but were then lowered to as low as 0.28%. However, new forecasts for the moon-asteroid impact have emerged.
US space agency NASA in a post on X stated, “New data gathered last night (Feb. 19-20) dropped the December 2032 impact odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 to 0.28%. Monitoring continues.”
The city-killing asteroid originally made headlines when astronomers predicted a 1.5% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032.
While recent assessments indicate that Earth is not in danger, NASA should remain vigilant and will keep an eye on the asteroid regardless of whether its path changes.
Notably, several space objects have passed closer to Earth than the Moon since 2024 YR4 was discovered, a phenomenon known as a near miss. In fact, the most serious near-miss and the closest comparison with YR4 was the Apophis asteroid, which was first spotted in 2004.
Thus, NASA and other space agencies across the world continue to closely monitor its trajectory; new developments lower the possibility of an Earth-asteroid collision.
