Russia-Ukraine war: Impact on India's military preparedness

The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on India's defence ties is severe and swift. India's flagship biennial defence show DefExpo-2022 scheduled for March 10-14 in Gandhinagar got postponed in which Russia was to be a major participant. With growing tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine, Russia-India defence ties face both immediate and long-term impacts of the new sanctions, making Indian banks jittery in processing even scheduled payments to Russian arms companies. The two countries had agreed to the payments in Rupee-Rouble, however, Russia has been cut off from the international banking system, SWIFT, and this has now raised concerns in India. As per one estimate, the annual outgo for spares and parts from Russia for the armed forces is in excess of $500 million. The dependency on Russian suppliers and payments that are due to be made for both new weapon systems and spares for maintenance of Russian-origin weaponry.

India imports almost 70 per cent of its defence equipment, with Russia being the major supplier. Russia has been a military partner for decades and some 70 per cent of our weaponry is of Russian origin. Not only that, our military cooperation involves joint research, development and production of advanced defence systems, all activities that now face disruption due to war. Given its huge dependence on existing Russian-origin weapon systems and platforms, as well as fresh acquisitions in the pipeline, India is now confronted with the herculean task of maintaining high operational military readiness amid the ongoing military stand-off with China.

Among the three-armed forces, the Indian Air Force (IAF) has the highest dependency on Russian spares and supplies as the bulk of its fighter fleet consists of the Su-30 MKI, MiG 29 and MiG 21 fighter jets. While the Su-30s are assembled in India, they are still dependent on a regular supply of spares from Russian companies. The Navy too had considerable exposure to Russian companies for maintaining its warship fleet while the mainstay of the Army's armoured corps is of Russian origin.

Crucial defence deals hangs in balance

India has been looking at large scale arms deals in the wake of the threat perception that has developed over the last two years involving China and Pakistan. Russian arms are the mainstay in the government's plan to modernise the armed forces. India and Russia signed more than two dozen deals worth more than Rs 1 lakh crore in December 2021. This agreement aimed at bolstering defence ties over the next decade. The pact includes up-gradation of defence cooperation and facilitation of joint development and production of military equipment, components and spare parts. In addition, bilateral projects between India and Russia include indigenous production of T-90 tanks and Su-30-MKI aircraft, supply of MiG-29-K aircraft and Kamov-31 and Mi-17 helicopters, upgrade of MiG-29 aircraft.

There are some big contracts pending and how it will be materialized is a key strategic concern given the ongoing military threats posed by China and Pakistan. One of the most significant military deals India made with Russia is that of the S-400 air defence system worth $5.4-billion for five units in 2018. S-400 deployment will provide a major boost to India's air defence capacity as the weapon system is designed to neutralise assets from over 400 km away.

Russia's most advanced long-range surface-to-air missile defence system has been hailed as the world's best and a game-changer weapon that will keep our hostile neighbours at a distance. The Indian Air Force has completed the deployment of the first squadron in the Punjab sector to take on threats from both Pakistan and Chinese airspace last month. The immediate effect would be the delay in the ongoing project, the delivery of which began only in December last year. The delivery of a training S-400 squadron is slated for March, with the second operational squadron scheduled for June-July. The complete delivery of five kits is expected to be in 2025.

Besides the S-400, the biggest deal worth $3 billion between India and Russia is the leasing of nuclear submarines. Both countries had signed an agreement for leasing one nuclear submarine in 2019 and work is on to lease another. The submarine, Chakra III, is expected to arrive only by end of 2025 and is a crucial element in India's overall defence nuclear programme. This will be the third nuclear submarine India would lease from Russia. The first was leased in 1988 for three years and the second in 2012 for 10 years. The lease for the second submarine is due to end this year.

Another ongoing project is a naval project for the supply of two Russian-made warships. Two Grigorovich-class 'Project 1135.6' frigates for the Indian Navy are in the middle of construction at a shipyard in Russia. The engines which will power these frigates are from Ukraine. India is reported to have signed a deal for eight Zorya-Mashproekt gas turbine engines for the frigates with Ukraine. While India did manage to send engines from Ukraine to Russia for the two frigates, it will now likely be delayed despite Russian promises due to the war. The project of the other two frigates which are under construction at India's Goa Shipyard Ltd (GSL) with technology transfer from Russia could be delayed too. Another major project that is likely to be delayed is the Indo-Russia project for manufacturing over six lakh new Kalashnikov assault AK-203 rifles in India to replace redundant Insas rifles introduced over 30 years ago. The formalities have been completed and final signatures are awaited. In addition, the contract also involves off the shelf procurement of another 70,000 AK-203 assault rifles from Russia.

However, projects which are in the negotiation stage will be affected the most as India will have to adopt a wait-and-watch approach. At the peak of its military face-off with China in Ladakh in July 2020, India approved the purchase of 18 additional Su-30 MKIs and 21 MiG 29 fighter aircraft from Russia. This Rs 18,148 crore deal also involved an upgrade of IAF's existing fleet of 59 Russian MiG 29s. According to the US media report, India has cancelled the order of Russian-made MiG 29 aircraft, although there is no official confirmation from India. Finally, Russia's defence sector will be badly hit by sanctions imposing curbs on imports of technologies and exports of finished weaponry and that could affect its capacity to meet India's defence orders.

(Author is a journalist who writes on defence, strategic affairs and technology)