H-1B Visa Tightening May Not Hit Indian IT

Despite President-elect Donald Trump’s support, many see Trump administration’s cautious approach on this immigration programme to continue during his term

Bengaluru: Debate around H-1B visa programme facilitating immigration of skilled professionals to the United States has heated up with two fractions of President-elect Donald Trump’s supporters, sparring over the appointment of Indian-origin Sriram Krishnan as the senior AI advisor to the White House.

However, Trump himself has come out in support of H-1B visa programme. Speaking to The New York Post, he said: “I have many H-1B visas on my properties. I’ve been a believer in H-1B. I have used it many times. It’s a great program.”

Despite this support, many see Trump administration’s cautious approach on this immigration programme to continue during his term.

However, they pointed out that Indian IT industry is unlikely to see much obstacle as they have reduced their dependence to a significant extent in the last five years.

“Indian IT services companies’ dependence on H-1B visa programme has reduced a lot in recent years. So, tightening of norms by the next administration may not have much impact on Indian IT industry. However, some mid-tier IT firms may see subcontracting cost going up as they don’t have adequate numbers of manpower in onsite locations like the US,” said a senior executive of a Bengaluru-headquartered mid-tier IT firm.

Sources in the know said that the Trump administration is unlikely to ease norms of H-1B visa norms or increasing the cap given the stringent opposition by a section of his supporters.

In recent days, social media platforms like ‘X’ have been abuzz with messages of opposition to the appointment of Sriram Krishnan as the senior AI advisor. While fraction of Trump’s advisors has opposed such appointment, linking it to the H-1B visa programme; the likes of Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy and David Sacks- White House AI and Crypto Czar nominee- have come out strongly in support of immigration programme.

Meanwhile, Indian IT firms and global technology firms have started preparing for various scenarios with related to H1B visa norms.

“Many IT firms have started sounding out their subcontractors regarding a demand surge of personnel in case Trump administration comes out with stringent immigration norms,” another person said.

According to the US Citizenship and Immigration Services, the share of Indian companies among the top-10 visa recipients has dropped from 51 per cent to 24 per cent during the 2016-19 period. Meanwhile, recent survey showed that, since 2016, US firms’ use of H-1B visas has surged by an impressive 189 per cent. Amazon leads this charge, reporting a staggering 478 per cent increase in H-1B visa applications, while Meta and Google rose 244 per cent and 137 per cent, respectively.

Post its Q1 results announcement, Accenture’s CEO recently said that the company is hiring more numbers of engineers in India because of availability of good engineering talent at scale.