Indian Quick Commerce At $50 Bn By FY30

New Delhi: The Indian quick commerce industry is estimated to reach $50 billion in gross order value (GOV) by FY30, which implies 60 million customers ordering eight times per month, according to an HSBC Research report on Tuesday. This is a significant share of the total addressable market (TAM) captured in five years. While not an impossible target, it will not be easy to achieve, said the report.

“We continue to believe in the potential of quick commerce in India. But Street expectations look no more undemanding. We think the TAM (total addressable market) is much smaller for this industry than broadly understood,” it added.

Based on the bottom-up analysis, grocery TAM for the top 30 cities is not more than $125 billion. This assumes Rs30,000 spend per month per household. Also, smaller towns are not easy to scale up, with their tendency to pay for delivery lower too. “This may not matter in the near term as growth likely stays solid with continued supply expansion in 2025, but worries may start to emerge in 2-3 years,” the report mentioned, adding that delivery charges are a must to make the business viable.