Merchandise exports to rise 12.3% in Q1: Exim Bank

Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) has forecast India’s total merchandise exports to rise to $116.7 billion, witnessing an y-o-y growth of 12.3 per cent, and non-oil exports $93.9 billion, 10.7 per cent growth, the first quarter (April-June) of this fiscal.

These positive growth rates are expected to be in continuation of the positive growth witnessed during the last two quarters of 2023-24, it said today. “Positive growth in India’s exports could be as a result of India’s strong GDP growth fundamentals and outlook, sustained momentum in manufacturing and services sector, backed by expected global easing of monetary tightening spurring global demand, and to some extent due to base effect.”

The outlook is, however, subject to such risks as uncertain prospects for advanced economies, geopolitical shocks, the Middle East crisis (which may lead to the intensification of the Red Sea crisis), and deepening geo-economic fragmentation. Growth in exports is expected to continue to witness a positive momentum in the forthcoming quarters, the Exim Bank.

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by Exim Bank on a quarterly basis, during the first fortnight of the months of May, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters, based on its Export Leading Index (ELI) model. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 2nd quarter of FY 2025 (i.e. July-September 2024) would be released during the first fortnight of August 2024.

The improvisations to the model and the forecast results have been reviewed by a standing technical committee of domain experts comprising: Professor Saikat Sinha Roy, Professor & Head, Department of Economics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata; Professor N.R. Bhanumurthy, Vice-Chancellor, BASE University, Bengaluru; Dr. Sarat Dhal, Adviser, Department of Economic and Policy Research, Reserve Bank of India; and Professor C. Veeramani, Director, Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum.

As part of its continued research initiatives, the Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an ELI for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis, the bank said. “The ELI gauges the outlook for the country’s exports and is essentially developed as a leading indicator to forecast growth in total merchandise and non-oil exports of the country, on a quarterly basis, based on several external and domestic factors that could impact exports of the country.”