India should avoid middle-income trap
The $30-trn target with per capita income of $18k is need of the hour: NITI
image for illustrative purpose
Vision for Viksit Bharat @ 2047
- GDP would have to grow 9x from today’s $3.36 trn
- Per capita income needs to rise 8x from current $2,392/pa
- Progressing from middle-income to high-income level requires higher growth
- For this, sustained growth in 7%-10% for 20-30 yrs
New Delhi: India needs to strive to be a $30 trillion economy with a per capita income of $18,000 per annum by 2047, the approach paper for vision for Vikshit Bharat in 2047 has said. NITI Aayog in a paper titled “Vision for Viksit Bharat @ 2047:An Approach Paper” said India needs to avoid the Middle-Income trap and carefully work towards breaking out of it.
“As for the economy, to become a developed nation, we need to strive to be a $30 trillion economy by 2047 with a per capita income of $18,000 per annum. The GDP would have to grow nine times from today’s $3.36 trillion and the per capita income would need to rise 8 times from today’s $2,392 per annum,” it said.
The paper also noted that progressing from a middle-income to a high-income level requires sustained growth in the range of 7-10 per cent for 20-30 years and very few countries have managed to do this. Defining the concept of Vikshit Bharat, the paper said it is a Bharat which will have all the attributes of a developed country with a per capita income that is comparable to the high-income countries of the world today. It is a Bharat whose social, cultural, technological, and institutional features will mark it out as a developed nation with a rich heritage and one that is capable of functioning at the frontiers of knowledge.
The World Bank defines high-income countries as those whose annual per capita income is more than $14,005 (in 2023). India has the potential and aims to be a high-income country by the centenary of its independence in 2047. The paper said upgrading capabilities in manufacturing and logistics and bridging the gap between rural and urban incomes are some of the structural challenges that India needs to address. This document was discussed during NITI Aayog’s ninth Governing Council meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
It noted that the country needs to achieve a balance between energy, security, access, affordability and sustainability. The document said improving the competitiveness of industry is equally necessary for the transformation of the country’s agricultural workforce into an industrial workforce and making India a global manufacturing and service hub. Noting that a vision for India cannot be the work of a few individuals or of one government, the document said it has to be the result of the collective efforts of the entire nation.
